Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (23 Jan 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
Landfall between
19 Jan 2021 06:00 - 19 Jan 2021 18:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 148 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 111 3.2 million No people Madagascar
Green 3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Green 4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Orange 5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 130 5.7 million 770 thousand Mozambique
Orange 6 19 Jan 2021 18:00 148 12.2 million 2.3 million Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
GREEN
2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.2, 59.6
GREEN
3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.7, 56.6
GREEN
4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 250000 people -14.1, 53
GREEN
5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1000000 people -14.5, 51.7
GREEN
6 19 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2.4 million people -15.3, 50.1 Madagascar
GREEN
6 20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.3 million people -15.8, 48.2 Madagascar
GREEN
6 20 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -16.7, 46 Madagascar
GREEN
6 21 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -17.7, 44 Madagascar
GREEN
6 21 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.6, 42.2
ORANGE
6 22 Jan 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 480000 people 1.7 million people -20.6, 38.8
ORANGE
6 23 Jan 2021 18:00 Category 1 148 2.3 million people 9 million people -23.1, 35.7 Mozambique
GREEN
6 24 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -24.9, 33.5 Mozambique
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country
Inhambane Mozambique
Gaza Mozambique
Maputo Mozambique

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Maxixe Mozambique City 120000 people
Xai-Xai Gaza Mozambique City 130000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Xai Xai VJB unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Macanzele, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (267 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 19 Jan 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Amado Mozambique  0.5
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Baly Madagascar  0.5
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.4
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Beira Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Afo Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Tama Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 08:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Beula Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 05:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 01:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 04:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Chicoque Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Banga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 05:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 03:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Guinjala Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Siane Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Camo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 01:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 23:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 15:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Gafaria Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Nangalete Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Mahupe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Napito Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1