Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population 1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (23 Jan 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)
Landfall between
22 Jan 2021 18:00 - 23 Jan 2021 18:00

in Mozambique

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 167 km/h 2.1 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 139 km/h 2.1 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 102 3.1 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 111 3.2 million No people Madagascar
Green 3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Green 4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 111 5.7 million No people Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
Orange 5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 130 5.7 million 770 thousand Mozambique
Orange 6 19 Jan 2021 18:00 148 12.2 million 2.3 million Mozambique
Orange 7 20 Jan 2021 06:00 148 36.9 million 550 thousand Mozambique
Red 8 20 Jan 2021 18:00 167 13.9 million 1.4 million Mozambique, Zimbabwe

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.6, 62.1
GREEN
2 17 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -13.2, 59.6
GREEN
3 18 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.7, 56.6
GREEN
4 18 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 250000 people -14.1, 53
GREEN
5 19 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1000000 people -14.5, 51.7
GREEN
6 19 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2.4 million people -15.3, 50.1 Madagascar
GREEN
7 20 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2.2 million people -15.6, 48 Madagascar
GREEN
8 20 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 750000 people -15.7, 44.8
GREEN
8 21 Jan 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 960000 people -16.6, 42.7
GREEN
8 21 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 4 million people -17.4, 40.4
ORANGE
8 22 Jan 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 120000 people 5.1 million people -18.3, 38.3
RED
8 22 Jan 2021 18:00 Category 2 167 1.4 million people 5.6 million people -19.2, 36.3
GREEN
8 23 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 2.9 million people -21.1, 32.8 Mozambique
GREEN
8 24 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.7, 29.9 South Africa
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mozambique
Zimbabwe

Provinces

Region Province Country
Zambezia Mozambique
Sofala Mozambique
Manica Mozambique
Manicaland Zimbabwe
Gaza Mozambique
Masvingo Zimbabwe

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Beira Sofala Mozambique Major city 520000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Chinde INE unknown 0
Luabo LBM unknown 0
Beira BEW 10 Civ. Paved Yes 7800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Vila Do Chinde Mozambique
Chinde MZINE Mozambique
Beira MZBEW Mozambique

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

2.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.1m in Damiao, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (263 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 20 Jan 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Damiao Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Nhangau Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Chamba Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Beira Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Manica Mozambique  1.9
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.9
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.5
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.5
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Chiloane Mozambique  1.4
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Tama Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 17:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 17:00 Amado Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Jonja Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 17:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 22:00 Bingue Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Machesse Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.9
20 Jan 2021 14:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.7
20 Jan 2021 14:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.6
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.6
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.6
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 14:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.5
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.4
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 11:00 Barra Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 11:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.4
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.4
20 Jan 2021 22:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 04:00 Jo Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 14:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 14:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 05:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 05:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 22:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 17:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 17:00 Baly Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 22:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.3
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 15:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 13:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 05:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 04:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 14:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 03:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 22:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 12:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasimena Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 17:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 22:00 Ampohana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 17:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 06:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 00:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Coropoa Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Larde Mozambique  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ampaha Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Andrapengy Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambariomena Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodizaotra Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.2
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 12:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 22:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Antanifatsy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 13:00 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 13:00 Ankomany Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Mahatsaborimaika Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 22:00 Dzamandzar Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 19:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 11:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Amborimalana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambodipont-Sahana Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Antalaha Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 09:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 11:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 03:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 08:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 10:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 16:00 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 14:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
19 Jan 2021 15:00 Ambinany Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 00:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 17:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 15:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 09:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 07:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
19 Jan 2021 20:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 08:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 17:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 17:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 16:00 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 16:00 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1