Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21 in Cocos (Keeling) Islands, from 26 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC to 03 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21

in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

03 Mar 2021 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	185 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (26 Feb 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	185 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	26 Feb 2021 00:00	148	No people	No people
2	26 Feb 2021 12:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
3	27 Feb 2021 00:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
4	27 Feb 2021 12:00	148	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
5	28 Feb 2021 00:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
6	28 Feb 2021 12:00	185	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
7	01 Mar 2021 00:00	167	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
8	01 Mar 2021 12:00	157	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
9	02 Mar 2021 00:00	167	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
10	02 Mar 2021 12:00	167	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
11	03 Mar 2021 00:00	148	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands
12	03 Mar 2021 12:00	93	Few people	No people	Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	26 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 100.4
2	26 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	<1000 people	-14.8, 97
3	27 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-15, 94.7
4	27 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-16.2, 93.3
5	28 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16.9, 92
6	28 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-17.4, 91.3
7	01 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-17.8, 90.4
8	01 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-18.3, 89.5
9	02 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18.6, 89.5
10	02 Mar 2021 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18.7, 89.8
11	03 Mar 2021 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-18.9, 90.9
12	03 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-19.3, 92.1
12	04 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-20.3, 93.2
12	04 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-21.5, 94.2
12	05 Mar 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-23, 95.1
12	05 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-24.4, 95.8
12	06 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-26.9, 96.8
12	07 Mar 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-28.4, 97.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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