Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (01 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
01 Sep 2021 00:00 - 02 Sep 2021 00:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 130 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 610000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 16.3, -105.1
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 1.7 million people no people 17.6, -105.6
GREEN
10 29 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 2.2 million people 4600 people 19.6, -106.2
GREEN
10 29 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 130 1.5 million people 1000 people 21.6, -107
GREEN
10 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 2.2 million people no people 22.7, -107.9
GREEN
10 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 148 2.7 million people no people 23.6, -108.6
GREEN
10 31 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 2.8 million people <1000 people 24.5, -109.3
ORANGE
10 01 Sep 2021 00:00 Category 1 130 1.9 million people 160000 people 26.5, -111
GREEN
10 02 Sep 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 29.5, -111.5 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Nayarit Mexico 900000 people
Baja California Sur Mexico 350000 people
Sonora Mexico 2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Isla Maria Madre 5 0
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Bahia Salinas Mexico
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Comaquito Babasac 1977

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in San Jose, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2021 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 28 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Sep 2021 03:00 San Jose Mexico  0.3
01 Sep 2021 00:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 19:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 22:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 14:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 03:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 22:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 00:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 03:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 11:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 03:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 19:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 22:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 21:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 22:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 03:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 13:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 14:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 03:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 20:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 20:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 02:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 01:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 18:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 03:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 20:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 02:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 03:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1