Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (30 Aug 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
01 Sep 2021 06:00 - 02 Sep 2021 06:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 130 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 180000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 610000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 16.3, -105.1
GREEN
11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 1.9 million people no people 17.1, -105.2
GREEN
11 28 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 2.2 million people 8800 people 18.8, -105.5
GREEN
11 29 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 1.9 million people 6400 people 20.8, -106.1
GREEN
11 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 680000 people no people 22.4, -107
GREEN
11 30 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 290000 people no people 23.3, -107.8
GREEN
11 30 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 270000 people no people 24.1, -108.6
GREEN
11 31 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 350000 people no people 24.9, -109.4
ORANGE
11 01 Sep 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 1.2 million people 160000 people 26.4, -110.6
GREEN
11 02 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 28.7, -111 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Jalisco Mexico 5.8 million people
Nayarit Mexico 900000 people
Sonora Mexico 2 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
La Gloria 34 0
Isla Maria Madre 5 0
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Ipala Mexico
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
Empalme Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Castillo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (49 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 28 Aug 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2021 18:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 13:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Chola Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 07:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 05:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 22:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 09:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 11:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 16:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 10:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 09:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1