Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (01 Sep 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
01 Sep 2021 12:00 - 02 Sep 2021 12:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 148 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 21000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 610000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 16.3, -105.1
GREEN
11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 1.9 million people no people 17.1, -105.2
GREEN
12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 2.8 million people 14000 people 18.4, -105.4
GREEN
12 29 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 2.5 million people 14000 people 20.1, -105.8
GREEN
12 29 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 148 1.2 million people <1000 people 22, -106.5
GREEN
12 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 1.8 million people no people 23.1, -107.3
GREEN
12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 139 1.5 million people no people 23.8, -108
GREEN
12 31 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 130 770000 people no people 24.5, -108.9
GREEN
12 31 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 870000 people no people 25.2, -109.6
GREEN
12 01 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 1.7 million people no people 26.9, -110.5
GREEN
12 02 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 29.3, -111 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Jalisco Mexico 5.8 million people
Nayarit Mexico 900000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
La Gloria 34 0
Isla Maria Madre 5 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
El Tabaco Mexico
Ipala Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in San Jose, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2021 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (57 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 28 Aug 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
01 Sep 2021 15:00 San Jose Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 18:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
01 Sep 2021 15:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Ipala Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 20:00 Altata Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 13:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
01 Sep 2021 15:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Corrales Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.3
01 Sep 2021 08:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 15:00 Liliba Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 13:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Chola Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 09:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 08:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 03:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 14:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 14:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Pizota Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 10:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 19:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 00:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 08:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1