Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (29 Aug 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
29 Aug 2021 03:00 - 29 Aug 2021 09:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 65 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 12.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico
Orange 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 139 14.2 million 600 thousand Mexico
Orange 14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 120 14.4 million 1.1 million Mexico
Orange 15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 120 14.5 million 1.4 million Mexico
Orange 16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 120 14.6 million 1.3 million Mexico
Green 17 29 Aug 2021 21:00 93 13.5 million 1.4 million Mexico
Green 18 30 Aug 2021 03:00 65 12.5 million 1.4 million Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 600000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 16.3, -105.1
GREEN
11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 1.9 million people no people 17.1, -105.2
GREEN
12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 2.8 million people 13000 people 18.4, -105.4
ORANGE
13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 8.6 million people 470000 people 19.7, -105.4 Mexico
GREEN
14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 Category 1 120 2.3 million people 72000 people 21.3, -105.5
ORANGE
15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 2.8 million people 640000 people 22.5, -105.9 Mexico
ORANGE
16 29 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 120 2 million people 590000 people 23.3, -106.4 Mexico
GREEN
17 29 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 93 1.7 million people no people 24.3, -107.5 Mexico
GREEN
18 30 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 65 1.2 million people no people 24.8, -107.9 Mexico
GREEN
18 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 65 970000 people no people 25.4, -108.4 Mexico
GREEN
18 31 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 26.3, -109.1 Mexico
GREEN
18 31 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 27, -109.6 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.3 million people
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Colima Mexico 460000 people
Michoacan Mexico 3.8 million people
Guerrero Mexico 2.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Culiacán Sinaloa Mexico Major city 540000 people
Guamúchil Sinaloa Mexico City 56000 people
El Dorado Sinaloa Mexico City -
Guasave Sinaloa Mexico City 67000 people
Los Mochis Sinaloa Mexico City 210000 people
Ahome Sonora Mexico City 10000 people
Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people
Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 14000 people
Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 22000 people
Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -
Tepic Nayarit Mexico Major city 270000 people
Compostela Nayarit Mexico City 15000 people
Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 180000 people
Ahuacatlán Nayarit Mexico City 6200 people
San Martín de Bolaños Nayarit Mexico City -
Ixtlán del Río Nayarit Mexico City 21000 people
Talpa de Allende Jalisco Mexico City -
Etzatlán Jalisco Mexico City 12000 people
Ahulalulco de Mercado Jalisco Mexico City -
Amatitán Jalisco Mexico City 9400 people
Ameca Jalisco Mexico City 35000 people
Cocula Jalisco Mexico City 14000 people
Guadalajara Jalisco Mexico Major city 1.6 million people
Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 39000 people
Zacoalco de Torres Jalisco Mexico City -
Chapala Jalisco Mexico City 20000 people
Atoyac Jalisco Mexico City 5300 people
Sayula Jalisco Mexico City 24000 people
Ciudad Guzmán Jalisco Mexico City -
Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 100000 people
Tamazula de Gordiano Jalisco Mexico City -
Colima Colima Mexico Major city 120000 people
Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 12000 people
Armería Colima Mexico City 15000 people
Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people
Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Campo Gobierno 13 0
Fedl de Bachigualato CUL 33 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Guamuchil 24 0
Campo Cuatro Milpas 28 0
Cosala 76 0
Los Cerritos Northeast 17 0
General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Rancho los Cabras 3 0
Teacapan 6 0
Acaponeta 84 0
Isla Maria Madre 5 0
La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0
San Blas 3 0
Tepic TPQ 960 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
El Llano 12 0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
La Gloria 34 0
Zapopan ZAP 1625 0
Miguel Hidal GDL 1528 Civ. Paved Yes 13100
Autlan 884 0
Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Ciudad Guzman 1520 0
Tuxpan 1225 Mil. Paved No 6700
Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Coahuayana 61 0
Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0
El Infiernillo 511 0
Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Altata Mexico
Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
San Blas MXSBS Mexico
Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
Ipala Mexico
El Tabaco Mexico
Chamela Mexico
Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico
Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Presidente Adolfo Lopez Mateos Humaya 1964
Sinaloa Tamazula 1948
Eustaquio Mocorito 1972
Presa Juan Guerrero Juan Guerrero El Bledal 1994
Presidente Jose L. Portillo San Lorenzo 1981
El Salto Elota 1985
Agua Milpa Agua Milpa Santiago 1994
Corrinchis Mascota 1977
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976
La Vega Teuchitlan 1956
Tacotan Amuquila 1958
Trigomil Ayuquila 1993
Basilio Vadillo Basilio Vadillo San Migue 1973
Trojes Coahuayana 1994
Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 30 Aug 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.7
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
29 Aug 2021 07:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 04:00 San Blas Mexico  0.6
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 11:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 16:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 13:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 11:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Boca Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 09:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 10:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 14:00 Barron Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 09:00 Novillero Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Florida Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 01:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.4
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chola Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 02:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 13:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1