Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (31 Aug 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
31 Aug 2021 12:00 - 01 Sep 2021 12:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 8200 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 610000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
8 28 Aug 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 93 530000 people no people 16.3, -105.2
GREEN
8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 1.3 million people no people 17.9, -105.9
GREEN
8 29 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 2.3 million people no people 19.9, -106.5
GREEN
8 29 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 130 1.6 million people no people 21.7, -107.4
GREEN
8 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 3 million people no people 23.1, -108.3
GREEN
8 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 139 2.6 million people <1000 people 24.2, -109.1
GREEN
8 31 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 2 million people 8400 people 26.1, -110.7
GREEN
8 01 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 28.4, -111.7 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Sur Mexico 350000 people
Sonora Mexico 2 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Topolobampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (51 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 27 Aug 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 11:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 14:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 12:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 11:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 00:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 14:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 10:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 11:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 12:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 17:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 12:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 12:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 13:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 12:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 08:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 07:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1