Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 21 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 21:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    31 Aug 2021 18:00 - 01 Sep 2021 18:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 148 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      148 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 43000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
        Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
        Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
        Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 610000 people 15.4, -104.3
          GREEN
          		 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1.2 million people 15.5, -104.9
          GREEN
          		 9 28 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 340000 people 16.5, -105.6
          GREEN
          		 9 28 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 no people 770000 people 18.3, -106.2
          GREEN
          		 9 29 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 550000 people 20.3, -107
          GREEN
          		 9 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 no people 370000 people 21.9, -107.8
          GREEN
          		 9 30 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 148 19000 people 590000 people 22.9, -108.6
          GREEN
          		 9 30 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 148 17000 people 1.3 million people 23.9, -109.4
          GREEN
          		 9 31 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 22000 people 1.8 million people 25.9, -110.9
          GREEN
          		 9 01 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 28.4, -111.8 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Baja California Sur Mexico
          Sonora Mexico

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
          Punta Pescadero 7 0
          Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Buenavista Mexico
          Bahia Salinas Mexico
          Loreto Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Topolobampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (50 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 27 Aug 2021 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          31 Aug 2021 21:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 02:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 15:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 16:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 15:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 15:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 16:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 00:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 21:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 18:00 Ligui Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 16:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 21:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 21:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 16:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 21:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 19:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 14:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 13:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 01:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 20:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 23:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 03:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 17:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 05:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 05:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 10:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 14:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 18:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 18:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 14:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 12:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 09:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 21:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 19:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 19:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 01:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 21:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1