Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for OLAF-21 in Mexico from 07 Sep 2021 21:00 UTC to 10 Sep 2021 15:00 UTC

10 Sep 2021 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (10 Sep 20:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 09 Sep 2021 21:00 - 10 Sep 2021 03:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 620000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2021 21:00	120	No people	No people
2	08 Sep 2021 03:00	120	80 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	08 Sep 2021 09:00	120	70 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	08 Sep 2021 15:00	111	No people	No people
5	08 Sep 2021 21:00	111	120 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	09 Sep 2021 03:00	111	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	09 Sep 2021 09:00	130	320 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	09 Sep 2021 15:00	139	580 thousand	240 thousand	Mexico
9	09 Sep 2021 21:00	157	640 thousand	300 thousand	Mexico
10	10 Sep 2021 03:00	157	650 thousand	580 thousand	Mexico
11	10 Sep 2021 09:00	139	630 thousand	310 thousand	Mexico
12	10 Sep 2021 15:00	111	620 thousand	310 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.2, -107.9
2	08 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.2, -107.4
3	08 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.5, -107.1
4	08 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.9, -107.5
5	08 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	19.4, -107.7
6	09 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20, -108
7	09 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.5, -108
8	09 Sep 2021 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	300000 people	21.2, -108.3
9	09 Sep 2021 21:00	Category 1	148	290000 people	570000 people	22.2, -108.9
10	10 Sep 2021 03:00	Category 2	157	570000 people	580000 people	23, -109.6	Mexico
11	10 Sep 2021 09:00	Category 1	139	5600 people	620000 people	23.7, -110.7	Mexico
12	10 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	310000 people	24.1, -111.3	Mexico
12	11 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	3400 people	24.5, -112.4
12	11 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	24.6, -113.6
12	12 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	24.3, -114.7
12	12 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	23.4, -115.9
12	13 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	22.4, -117.3
12	13 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	21.6, -118.6
12	14 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	20.7, -121
12	15 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	20, -123

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people
Villa Constitución	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Leon	LAP	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
La Paz		26				0
Arroyo Capo		20				0
Villa Constitucion	VIB	43				0
Punta Pescadero		7				0
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
San Juan de la Costa	MXSJC	Mexico
La Paz		Mexico
Puerto Madalena		Mexico
San Carlos	MXSCR	Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 20:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (29 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 10 Sep 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Sep 2021 20:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.5
	10 Sep 2021 10:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.4
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 18:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 12:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 15:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 07:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 14:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 18:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 13:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 11:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 06:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 23:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.3
	10 Sep 2021 22:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.2
	10 Sep 2021 04:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.2
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	10 Sep 2021 05:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.2
	10 Sep 2021 23:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	10 Sep 2021 04:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 05:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	11 Sep 2021 00:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 12:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 08:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.1
	10 Sep 2021 03:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1