Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PETER-21 in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda from 19 Sep 2021 03:00 UTC to 21 Sep 2021 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PETER-21

in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda

21 Sep 2021 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PETER-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	83 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (Anguilla)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	83 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 220000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	19 Sep 2021 03:00	74	No people	No people
2	19 Sep 2021 09:00	74	No people	No people
3	19 Sep 2021 13:00	74	No people	No people
4	19 Sep 2021 15:00	74	30 thousand	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla
5	19 Sep 2021 21:00	74	No people	No people
6	20 Sep 2021 03:00	83	20 thousand	No people	Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla
7	20 Sep 2021 09:00	83	Few people	No people	Anguilla
8	20 Sep 2021 15:00	83	Few people	No people	Anguilla
9	20 Sep 2021 21:00	83	No people	No people
10	21 Sep 2021 03:00	83	220 thousand	No people	Anguilla, Virgin Islands British, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands U.S.

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	19 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.4, -53.1
2	19 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18, -53.5
3	19 Sep 2021 13:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.6, -56
4	19 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	17.6, -56.5
5	19 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.4, -57.8
6	20 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	18.6, -58.5
7	20 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	19.1, -59.5
8	20 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	<1000 people	19.5, -60.9
9	20 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20, -61.8
10	21 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	220000 people	19.8, -62.8
10	21 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	12000 people	20.4, -64.2
10	22 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	21.3, -66
10	22 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	22.3, -67.2
10	23 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	23.2, -67.7
10	23 Sep 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	24, -67.7
10	24 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	25.1, -67.2
10	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.5, -66
10	26 Sep 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	30.5, -64.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Anguilla
British Virgin Is.
Antigua & Barbuda
St. Kitts & Nevis
Virgin Is.

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Anguilla	Anguilla
British Virgin Is.	Virgin Islands British
Antigua & Barbuda	Antigua and Barbuda
St. Kitts & Nevis	Saint Kitts and Nevis
Virgin Is.	Virgin Islands U.S.

Populated places

Name	Country	City class	Population
The Valley	Anguilla	Capital	1400 people
Philipsburg	Netherlands Antilles	City	6400 people
Gustavia	Guadeloupe	City	-
Road Town	British Virgin Islands	Capital	8300 people
Charlotte Amalie	Virgin Islands	Capital	10000 people
Basseterre	St. Kitts and Nevis	Capital	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Wallblake	AXA	33	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3600
Grand Case	CCE	2	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Prinses Juliana	SXM	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7000
Anegada	NGD	unknown				0
St. Barthelemy	SBH	unknown	Civ.	Paved	No	2100
North Sound Virgin Gorda	NSX	unknown				0
Virgin Gorda	VIJ	4	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Beef Island	EIS	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3600
F D Roosevelt	EUX	38	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4200
St. John	SJF	unknown				0
Cruz Bay		unknown				0
Barbuda Codrington	BBQ	unknown				0
Stouffer Grand Beach Resort		38				0
Golden Rock	SKB	52	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8000
Frenchman's Reef		6				0
H.S. Truman	STT	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Blowing Point	AIBLP	Anguilla
Marigot		Guadeloupe
Anegada Island		British Virgin Islands
Philipsburg	ANPHI	Netherlands Antilles
Gustavia	GPGUS	Guadeloupe
Virgin Gorda Island		British Virgin Islands
Road Harbour & Port Purcell		British Virgin Islands
Barbuda	AGBBQ	Antigua and Barbuda
Oranjestad		Netherlands Antilles
Cruz Bay		Virgin Islands
Charlotte Amalie	VISTT	Virgin Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 21 Sep 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.