Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: CE-2021-000162-SOM
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 130 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (13 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
13 Oct 2021 06:00 - 13 Oct 2021 18:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 185 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 130 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 200000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 176 2.5 million 230 thousand Mexico
Orange 2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 176 2.6 million 230 thousand Mexico
Orange 3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 176 3 million 360 thousand Mexico
Red 4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 185 2.9 million 250 thousand Mexico
Orange 5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 185 5 million 200 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 10 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -102.9
GREEN
2 10 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.8, -104.7
GREEN
3 10 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.5, -105.9
GREEN
4 11 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.9, -106.8
GREEN
5 11 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 16.2, -107.6
GREEN
5 11 Oct 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people <1000 people 16.9, -108.5
GREEN
5 12 Oct 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 no people <1000 people 18.2, -109.4
GREEN
5 12 Oct 2021 18:00 Category 2 157 no people 270000 people 19.9, -109.3
ORANGE
5 13 Oct 2021 06:00 Category 3 185 97000 people 3.3 million people 21.8, -108.3
ORANGE
5 13 Oct 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 140000 people 4.7 million people 24.2, -106.4 Mexico
GREEN
5 14 Oct 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 26.9, -103.3 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country
Sinaloa Mexico
Durango Mexico
Chihuahua Mexico
Coahuila Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Cosala 76 0
Laguna del Rey 1052 0

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
El Salto Elota 1985
Lazaro Cardenas Nazas 1947

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (20 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 13 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Florida Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Dimas Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 10:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1