Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for RAI-21 in Philippines from 13 Dec 2021 00:00 UTC to 14 Dec 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for RAI-21

in Philippines

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAI-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000202-PHL
Exposed countries	Philippines
Exposed population	13 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	259 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.8 m (16 Dec 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Philippines)
Landfall	between 15 Dec 2021 18:00 - 16 Dec 2021 06:00 in Philippines

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	1.8 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	259 km/h	1.8 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to 11.7 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Dec 2021 00:00	157	41.1 million	4.7 million	Philippines
2	13 Dec 2021 06:00	167	76.4 million	7.4 million	Philippines
3	13 Dec 2021 12:00	167	85.9 million	14.5 million	Philippines
4	13 Dec 2021 18:00	185	85.6 million	11.7 million	Philippines
5	14 Dec 2021 00:00	176	85.3 million	15.3 million	Philippines
6	14 Dec 2021 06:00	185	61.3 million	13.6 million	Philippines
7	14 Dec 2021 12:00	176	84.8 million	14 million	Philippines
8	14 Dec 2021 18:00	167	50.1 million	11.7 million	Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Dec 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	5.1, 141.7
2	13 Dec 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	5.2, 141
3	13 Dec 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1200 people	6, 139.8
4	13 Dec 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	31000 people	6.8, 138.6
5	14 Dec 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	21000 people	7.4, 136.9
6	14 Dec 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	21000 people	7.6, 135.3
7	14 Dec 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	21000 people	8.5, 134.5
8	14 Dec 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	21000 people	8.8, 133.3
8	15 Dec 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	3.9 million people	9.4, 130.9
8	15 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 1	148	450000 people	25.9 million people	9.9, 128.5
8	16 Dec 2021 06:00	Category 2	167	9.8 million people	34.4 million people	10.3, 125.8	Philippines
8	16 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 2	157	5.3 million people	35.7 million people	10.5, 123	Philippines
8	17 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	6.1 million people	11.3, 118.3
8	18 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	5.6 million people	12.7, 113.7
8	19 Dec 2021 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	15.1, 111.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.