Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for BATSIRAI-22 in Madagascar from 27 Jan 2022 00:00 UTC to 01 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (08 Jan 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 05 Feb 2022 00:00 - 06 Feb 2022 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	204 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 480000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	27 Jan 2022 00:00	102	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
2	27 Jan 2022 12:00	167	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
3	28 Jan 2022 00:00	130	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
4	28 Jan 2022 12:00	139	1000 thousand	No people	Mauritius
5	29 Jan 2022 00:00	176	1.1 million	No people	Mauritius
6	29 Jan 2022 12:00	194	2.2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
7	30 Jan 2022 00:00	185	2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
8	30 Jan 2022 12:00	204	3.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
9	31 Jan 2022 00:00	194	3.7 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
10	31 Jan 2022 12:00	194	14.4 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
11	01 Feb 2022 00:00	204	16.4 million	480 thousand	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	27 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-16.4, 83.7
2	27 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18, 79.6
3	28 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-18.6, 76.1
4	28 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-18.3, 73.4
5	29 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-18.2, 71.2
6	29 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-18, 69.9
7	30 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.6, 68.2
8	30 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-16.8, 66.1
9	31 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-16.4, 64.5
10	31 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-15.7, 63.2
11	01 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16.4, 62.3
11	01 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	210000 people	-17.3, 60.8
11	02 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	1.7 million people	-18, 59
11	02 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	2.2 million people	-18.5, 57.2
11	03 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	2.2 million people	-18.9, 55.7
11	04 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	4 million people	-19, 53.3
11	05 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	204	490000 people	14.3 million people	-19.3, 50.7
11	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-19.4, 48.1	Madagascar

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Andevoranto		Madagascar
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Tsiazompaniry	Varahina-Sud	1956

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Lohatrozona, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 08 Jan 2022 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (5 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 01 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Jan 2022 18:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 00:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 00:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Jan 2022 17:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Jan 2022 20:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1