Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
04 Feb 2022 00:00 - 05 Feb 2022 00:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 204 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 231 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.7 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 130 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 139 1000 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 176 1.1 million No people Mauritius
Green 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 194 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 185 2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 204 3.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Green 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 194 3.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Green 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 194 14.4 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Orange 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 16.4 million 480 thousand Madagascar
Red 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 204 18.9 million 3.8 million Madagascar
Red 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 231 20.3 million 2.8 million Madagascar
Red 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 204 21 million 2.7 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.4, 83.7
GREEN
2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18, 79.6
GREEN
3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.6, 76.1
GREEN
4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.3, 73.4
GREEN
5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.2, 71.2
GREEN
6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -18, 69.9
GREEN
7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.6, 68.2
GREEN
8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
GREEN
9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
GREEN
10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.7, 63.2
GREEN
11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.4, 62.3
GREEN
12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.2 million people -17.2, 60.1
GREEN
13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 222 no people 2.2 million people -18.1, 58.3
GREEN
14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 2.2 million people -18.9, 56.7
GREEN
14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 2.2 million people -19.4, 55.2
GREEN
14 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 204 no people 850000 people -19.4, 54.1
GREEN
14 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 5.1 million people -19.4, 52.9
RED
14 04 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 204 1.4 million people 16.3 million people -19.5, 51.3
RED
14 05 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 2 157 2.1 million people 17.6 million people -20.1, 47.7 Madagascar
GREEN
14 06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 3.5 million people -21.2, 43.1
GREEN
14 07 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -22.8, 38.8
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country
Toamasina Madagascar
Fianarantsoa Madagascar
Antananarivo Madagascar
Toliara Madagascar

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
Antsirabe Antananarivo Madagascar City 150000 people
Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
Antsirabe ATJ 1523 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
Malaimbandy WML 182 Civ. Unpaved No 3900
Mandabe WMD 290 Civ. Unpaved No 3500

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
Belo Sur Mer Madagascar
Antongo Madagascar

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 02 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)