Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
03 Feb 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 Jan 06:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    05 Feb 2022 00:00 - 06 Feb 2022 00:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 204 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 231 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      204 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 3.6 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 130 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 139 1000 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 176 1.1 million No people Mauritius
        Green 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 194 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 185 2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 204 3.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 194 3.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 194 14.4 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 16.4 million 480 thousand Madagascar
        Red 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 204 18.9 million 3.8 million Madagascar
        Red 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 231 20.3 million 2.8 million Madagascar
        Red 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 204 21 million 2.7 million Madagascar
        Red 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.8 million 3.6 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.4, 83.7
          GREEN
          		 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18, 79.6
          GREEN
          		 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.6, 76.1
          GREEN
          		 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.3, 73.4
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.2, 71.2
          GREEN
          		 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -18, 69.9
          GREEN
          		 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.6, 68.2
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
          GREEN
          		 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
          GREEN
          		 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.7, 63.2
          GREEN
          		 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.4, 62.3
          GREEN
          		 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.2 million people -17.2, 60.1
          GREEN
          		 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 222 no people 2.2 million people -18.1, 58.3
          GREEN
          		 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 2.2 million people -18.9, 56.7
          GREEN
          		 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 2.2 million people -19.1, 55.7
          GREEN
          		 15 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 204 no people 1.5 million people -19.3, 54.5
          GREEN
          		 15 04 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 2.5 million people -19.4, 53.3
          GREEN
          		 15 04 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 13 million people -19.4, 51.9
          RED
          		 15 05 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 204 3.6 million people 17.9 million people -19.6, 50.1
          ORANGE
          		 15 06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 14.9 million people -20.6, 45.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 15 07 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1.1 million people -22, 40.8
          GREEN
          		 15 08 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -22.9, 39.1
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Toliara Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
          Antsirabe Antananarivo Madagascar City 150000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
          Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Antsirabe ATJ 1523 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
          Ambatolahy AHY unknown 0
          Malaimbandy WML 182 Civ. Unpaved No 3900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Andevoranto Madagascar
          Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Ambodiharina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Jan 2022 06:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (183 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 03 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          10 Jan 2022 06:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.7
          10 Jan 2022 06:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.6
          10 Jan 2022 07:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.6
          11 Jan 2022 11:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.6
          11 Jan 2022 07:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.6
          11 Jan 2022 07:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.6
          10 Jan 2022 06:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.5
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.5
          10 Jan 2022 08:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.5
          11 Jan 2022 05:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.5
          11 Jan 2022 08:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.5
          10 Jan 2022 06:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.5
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 05:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 07:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 06:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 05:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 08:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 06:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 07:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Mite Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.4
          11 Jan 2022 09:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.4
          10 Jan 2022 21:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 05:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 07:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 08:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 08:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 08:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 08:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 03:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 04:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 11:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 21:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 15:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 07:00 Baly Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 04:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 17:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 07:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 17:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 20:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 04:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 03:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 03:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 04:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.3
          10 Jan 2022 21:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
          11 Jan 2022 05:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 13:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Amado Mozambique  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 04:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 14:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 07:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 07:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 08:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Build v7.1 2008-03-26 Europa Island  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Warren Point Europa Island  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 08:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 07:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 23:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 04:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 05:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 05:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 20:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 20:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
          09 Jan 2022 23:00 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 08:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 15:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 10:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 23:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
          11 Jan 2022 19:00 Andavadoaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 08:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          10 Jan 2022 08:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          09 Jan 2022 23:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 23:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Tama Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 16:00 Anadramy Nord Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 16:00 Mangolovolo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 13:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 14:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 20:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 19:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 18:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 18:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 19:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 10:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 10:00 Savana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 17:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 12:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 01:00 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 13:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 22:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
          09 Jan 2022 21:00 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 17:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 20:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 20:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
          12 Jan 2022 00:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 22:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 12:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 18:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 20:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 10:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 17:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 18:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 02:00 Vavony Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 19:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 11:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 11:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 11:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 15:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 11:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 11:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 15:00 Andalambezo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 07:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 07:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 16:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Ambohitrabo Madagascar  0.1
          11 Jan 2022 12:00 Ambatomilo Madagascar  0.1
          10 Jan 2022 13:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1