Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
04 Feb 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
    Exposed countries Madagascar
    Exposed population 2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Feb 14:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
    Landfall between
    05 Feb 2022 12:00 - 06 Feb 2022 00:00
    in Madagascar

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 204 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 231 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      204 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 4.4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 130 40 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 139 1000 thousand No people Mauritius
        Green 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 176 1.1 million No people Mauritius
        Green 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 194 2.2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 185 2 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 204 3.1 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 194 3.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Green 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 194 14.4 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Orange 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 204 16.4 million 480 thousand Madagascar
        Red 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 204 18.9 million 3.8 million Madagascar
        Red 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 231 20.3 million 2.8 million Madagascar
        Red 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 204 21 million 2.7 million Madagascar
        Red 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.8 million 3.6 million Madagascar
        Red 16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 185 20.6 million 4.3 million Madagascar
        Red 17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 204 20.6 million 4.4 million Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.4, 83.7
          GREEN
          		 2 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18, 79.6
          GREEN
          		 3 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.6, 76.1
          GREEN
          		 4 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.3, 73.4
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -18.2, 71.2
          GREEN
          		 6 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -18, 69.9
          GREEN
          		 7 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.6, 68.2
          GREEN
          		 8 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
          GREEN
          		 9 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
          GREEN
          		 10 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.7, 63.2
          GREEN
          		 11 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.4, 62.3
          GREEN
          		 12 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.2 million people -17.2, 60.1
          GREEN
          		 13 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 222 no people 2.2 million people -18.1, 58.3
          GREEN
          		 14 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 231 no people 2.2 million people -18.9, 56.7
          GREEN
          		 15 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 2.2 million people -19.1, 55.7
          GREEN
          		 16 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 4 213 no people 850000 people -19.2, 54.9
          GREEN
          		 17 04 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 850000 people -19.4, 53.9
          GREEN
          		 17 04 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 204 no people 3.3 million people -19.6, 52.6
          RED
          		 17 05 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 204 430000 people 14.6 million people -20, 51
          RED
          		 17 05 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 185 3.8 million people 17.4 million people -20.4, 49.1
          RED
          		 17 06 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 2.7 million people 16.9 million people -21, 46.6 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 17 07 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.8 million people -22.5, 42.1
          GREEN
          		 17 08 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 530000 people -24.2, 40.6
          GREEN
          		 17 09 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -26.6, 40.4
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Toamasina Madagascar
          Fianarantsoa Madagascar
          Antananarivo Madagascar
          Toliara Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
          Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
          Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people
          Manja Toliara Madagascar City -
          Ankazoabo Toliara Madagascar City 26000 people
          Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -
          Morombe Toliara Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
          Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Ambalavao 972 Civ. Unpaved No 3600
          Malaimbandy WML 182 Civ. Unpaved No 3900
          Beroroha WBO 250 Civ. Unpaved No 3100
          Mandabe WMD 290 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Manja MJA 240 Civ. Unpaved No 5200
          Ankazoabo WAK 430 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
          Tanandava TDV 27 Civ. Unpaved No 4500
          Morombe MXM 5 Civ. Paved No 4200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
          Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar
          Morombe MGMXM Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Nosy-Varika, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2022 14:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (166 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 04 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Feb 2022 14:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.6
          05 Feb 2022 14:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.6
          05 Feb 2022 14:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.6
          05 Feb 2022 15:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.6
          05 Feb 2022 15:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.5
          07 Feb 2022 12:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.5
          07 Feb 2022 12:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.5
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.5
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.5
          05 Feb 2022 15:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.5
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 11:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.4
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 18:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.4
          07 Feb 2022 09:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.4
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 17:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 17:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 18:00 Andavadoaka Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 17:00 Anadramy Nord Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 17:00 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 17:00 Mangolovolo Madagascar  0.4
          07 Feb 2022 05:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.4
          07 Feb 2022 12:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.4
          07 Feb 2022 09:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.4
          06 Feb 2022 11:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.4
          05 Feb 2022 15:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 05:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
          05 Feb 2022 15:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 21:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
          05 Feb 2022 14:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 04:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 08:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 06:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 08:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 20:00 Befandeva Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 06:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 06:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Amado Mozambique  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 09:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 06:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 06:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 20:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 19:00 Andalambezo Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 15:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 15:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 15:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
          06 Feb 2022 15:00 Onara Madagascar  0.3
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
          05 Feb 2022 16:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 07:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 15:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 07:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 08:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 16:00 Mite Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 16:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 16:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 11:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 06:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 12:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 12:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 07:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 18:00 Ambohitrabo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 11:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 20:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 20:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 20:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 20:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 19:00 Manakara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 17:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 17:00 Savana Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 17:00 Mangatsiatra Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 15:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 22:00 Salary Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 06:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 16:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 17:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 19:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 12:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 06:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 01:00 Tataho Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 09:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 19:00 Marohita Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 11:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 17:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.2
          06 Feb 2022 14:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 15:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 19:00 Ambatomilo Madagascar  0.2
          05 Feb 2022 19:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 07:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
          07 Feb 2022 22:00 Bekodoy Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 08:00 Tama Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 19:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 11:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 11:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 16:00 Anakitaina Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 22:00 Tsiandamba Madagascar  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 08:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
          06 Feb 2022 03:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 08:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 11:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 06:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 09:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
          06 Feb 2022 12:00 Manombo Madagascar  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 17:00 Pakapakaina Madagascar  0.1
          06 Feb 2022 15:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 09:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 09:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 13:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 18:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 22:00 Tsifota Madagascar  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 07:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
          06 Feb 2022 19:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 10:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 12:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 00:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 22:00 Build v7.1 2008-03-26 Europa Island  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 22:00 Warren Point Europa Island  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
          05 Feb 2022 04:00 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 06:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 08:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 09:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
          07 Feb 2022 11:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Tulear Madagascar  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
          08 Feb 2022 00:00 Miary Madagascar  0.1