Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for BATSIRAI-22 in Madagascar from 27 Jan 2022 00:00 UTC to 05 Feb 2022 12:00 UTC

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GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (10 Jan 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 05 Feb 2022 12:00 - 05 Feb 2022 12:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	27 Jan 2022 00:00	102	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
2	27 Jan 2022 12:00	167	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
3	28 Jan 2022 00:00	130	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
4	28 Jan 2022 12:00	139	1000 thousand	No people	Mauritius
5	29 Jan 2022 00:00	176	1.1 million	No people	Mauritius
6	29 Jan 2022 12:00	194	2.2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
7	30 Jan 2022 00:00	185	2 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
8	30 Jan 2022 12:00	204	3.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
9	31 Jan 2022 00:00	194	3.7 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
10	31 Jan 2022 12:00	194	14.4 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
11	01 Feb 2022 00:00	204	16.4 million	480 thousand	Madagascar
12	01 Feb 2022 12:00	204	18.9 million	3.8 million	Madagascar
13	02 Feb 2022 00:00	231	20.3 million	2.8 million	Madagascar
14	02 Feb 2022 12:00	204	21 million	2.7 million	Madagascar
15	03 Feb 2022 00:00	204	20.8 million	3.6 million	Madagascar
16	03 Feb 2022 12:00	185	20.6 million	4.3 million	Madagascar
17	04 Feb 2022 00:00	204	20.6 million	4.4 million	Madagascar
18	04 Feb 2022 12:00	222	21.2 million	2.1 million	Madagascar
19	05 Feb 2022 00:00	185	20.8 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
20	05 Feb 2022 12:00	185	20.4 million	2.9 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	27 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-16.4, 83.7
2	27 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-18, 79.6
3	28 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-18.6, 76.1
4	28 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-18.3, 73.4
5	29 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-18.2, 71.2
6	29 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-18, 69.9
7	30 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.6, 68.2
8	30 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-16.8, 66.1
9	31 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-16.4, 64.5
10	31 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-15.7, 63.2
11	01 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16.4, 62.3
12	01 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	1.2 million people	-17.2, 60.1
13	02 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	2.2 million people	-18.1, 58.3
14	02 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	2.2 million people	-18.9, 56.7
15	03 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	2.2 million people	-19.1, 55.7
16	03 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	850000 people	-19.2, 54.9
17	04 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	850000 people	-19.4, 53.9
18	04 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	8.9 million people	-19.4, 52.6
19	05 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	185	160000 people	14.6 million people	-19.9, 51.3
20	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	185	2.5 million people	16.1 million people	-20.8, 49.4
20	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	1.4 million people	16.4 million people	-21.6, 47	Madagascar
20	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	7.4 million people	-22.7, 44.4	Madagascar
20	06 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.5 million people	-23.6, 42.5
20	07 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.4 million people	-24.9, 41.5
20	08 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	76000 people	-27, 41.4
20	09 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-30.4, 42.3
20	10 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-34.1, 45.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toamasina	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Ihosy	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	17000 people
Ankazoabo	Toliara	Madagascar	City	26000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Ihosy	IHO	762	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400
Ankazoabo	WAK	430	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Vohitramposina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Jan 2022 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 20 of 05 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 03:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 00:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 05:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 02:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Jan 2022 01:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.1