Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for BATSIRAI-22 in Madagascar from 27 Jan 2022 00:00 UTC to 02 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22

in Madagascar

02 Feb 2022 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
10 min - 1 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed	194 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (05 Feb 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 05 Feb 2022 00:00 - 05 Feb 2022 12:00 in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (10-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	194 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	26 Jan 2022 12:00	56	No people	No people
2	26 Jan 2022 18:00	120	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
3	27 Jan 2022 00:00	120	20 thousand	No people	Mauritius
4	27 Jan 2022 06:00	93	No people	No people
5	27 Jan 2022 12:00	167	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
6	27 Jan 2022 18:00	139	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
7	28 Jan 2022 00:00	102	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
8	28 Jan 2022 06:00	111	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
9	28 Jan 2022 12:00	130	1.3 million	1.1 million	Mauritius
10	28 Jan 2022 18:00	130	1.9 million	30 thousand	Mauritius
11	29 Jan 2022 00:00	130	1.1 million	No people	Mauritius
12	29 Jan 2022 06:00	130	1.7 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
13	29 Jan 2022 12:00	185	140 thousand	No people	Mauritius
14	29 Jan 2022 18:00	167	440 thousand	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
15	30 Jan 2022 00:00	167	80 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
16	30 Jan 2022 06:00	176	No people	No people
17	30 Jan 2022 12:00	176	No people	No people
18	30 Jan 2022 18:00	204	2.3 million	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
19	31 Jan 2022 00:00	213	11.6 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
20	31 Jan 2022 06:00	204	11.4 million	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
21	31 Jan 2022 12:00	204	9 million	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
22	31 Jan 2022 18:00	176	12.1 million	90 thousand	Madagascar
23	01 Feb 2022 00:00	167	13.4 million	710 thousand	Madagascar
24	01 Feb 2022 06:00	185	15.3 million	1.5 million	Madagascar
25	01 Feb 2022 12:00	176	15.4 million	830 thousand	Madagascar
26	01 Feb 2022 18:00	185	17.6 million	840 thousand	Madagascar
27	02 Feb 2022 00:00	185	18.3 million	2 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (10-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	26 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-14.9, 86.6
2	26 Jan 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-15.7, 85.3
3	27 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-16.4, 83.6
4	27 Jan 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-16.9, 81.8
5	27 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-17.9, 79.6
6	27 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-18, 77.5
7	28 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-18, 76
8	28 Jan 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-18.2, 74.6
9	28 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-18.3, 73.6
10	28 Jan 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-18.4, 72.6
11	29 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-18.4, 71.8
12	29 Jan 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-18.1, 70.6
13	29 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-17.9, 69.9
14	29 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-17.7, 69.1
15	30 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.5, 68.1
16	30 Jan 2022 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.1, 67
17	30 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16.8, 66.1
18	30 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16.6, 65.1
19	31 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16.4, 64.5
20	31 Jan 2022 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.8, 63.9
21	31 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-15.9, 63.2
22	31 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-16, 63
23	01 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-16.5, 62.3
24	01 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16.8, 61.2
25	01 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.2, 60.2
26	01 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	1.1 million people	-17.7, 59.1
27	02 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	1.3 million people	-18.2, 58.4
27	02 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	2 million people	-19, 56.8
27	03 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	830000 people	-19.5, 55.3
27	03 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	590000 people	-19.7, 54
27	04 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	820000 people	-19.8, 52.5
27	04 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	10.6 million people	-19.9, 51.3
27	05 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 3	185	820000 people	13.2 million people	-20.1, 50.1
27	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	176	2 million people	14.7 million people	-20.3, 48.6	Madagascar
27	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	13.4 million people	-20.7, 46	Madagascar
27	06 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	1.2 million people	-21.7, 43.1
27	07 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-22.2, 41

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Masomeloka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (145 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 27 of 02 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.8
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.7
	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.7
	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2022 10:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.4
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.3
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 07:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 23:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 23:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 23:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 10:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 22:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 13:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 23:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 23:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 05:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 13:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 23:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 07:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 14:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 14:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 02:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 02:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 17:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 05:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 13:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 00:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min