Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
02 Feb 2022 00 UTC
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Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 2 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (05 Feb 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
05 Feb 2022 00:00 - 05 Feb 2022 12:00
in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind (10-min*) Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 185 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 194 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France
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Wind

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Tropical Storm or higher		 Population in
Cat 1. or higher		 Countries
Green 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 56 No people No people
Green 2 26 Jan 2022 18:00 120 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 3 27 Jan 2022 00:00 120 20 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 4 27 Jan 2022 06:00 93 No people No people
Green 5 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 6 27 Jan 2022 18:00 139 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 7 28 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 8 28 Jan 2022 06:00 111 1.3 million No people Mauritius
Orange 9 28 Jan 2022 12:00 130 1.3 million 1.1 million Mauritius
Green 10 28 Jan 2022 18:00 130 1.9 million 30 thousand Mauritius
Green 11 29 Jan 2022 00:00 130 1.1 million No people Mauritius
Green 12 29 Jan 2022 06:00 130 1.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 13 29 Jan 2022 12:00 185 140 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 14 29 Jan 2022 18:00 167 440 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 15 30 Jan 2022 00:00 167 80 thousand No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 16 30 Jan 2022 06:00 176 No people No people
Green 17 30 Jan 2022 12:00 176 No people No people
Green 18 30 Jan 2022 18:00 204 2.3 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 19 31 Jan 2022 00:00 213 11.6 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Green 20 31 Jan 2022 06:00 204 11.4 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 21 31 Jan 2022 12:00 204 9 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Orange 22 31 Jan 2022 18:00 176 12.1 million 90 thousand Madagascar
Orange 23 01 Feb 2022 00:00 167 13.4 million 710 thousand Madagascar
Orange 24 01 Feb 2022 06:00 185 15.3 million 1.5 million Madagascar
Orange 25 01 Feb 2022 12:00 176 15.4 million 830 thousand Madagascar
Orange 26 01 Feb 2022 18:00 185 17.6 million 840 thousand Madagascar
Red 27 02 Feb 2022 00:00 185 18.3 million 2 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS) 		Max winds
(km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher 		Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher 		Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -14.9, 86.6
GREEN
 2 26 Jan 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -15.7, 85.3
GREEN
 3 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16.4, 83.6
GREEN
 4 27 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -16.9, 81.8
GREEN
 5 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.9, 79.6
GREEN
 6 27 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -18, 77.5
GREEN
 7 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18, 76
GREEN
 8 28 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18.2, 74.6
GREEN
 9 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.3, 73.6
GREEN
 10 28 Jan 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.4, 72.6
GREEN
 11 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18.4, 71.8
GREEN
 12 29 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.1, 70.6
GREEN
 13 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -17.9, 69.9
GREEN
 14 29 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -17.7, 69.1
GREEN
 15 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.5, 68.1
GREEN
 16 30 Jan 2022 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.1, 67
GREEN
 17 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
GREEN
 18 30 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.6, 65.1
GREEN
 19 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
GREEN
 20 31 Jan 2022 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -15.8, 63.9
GREEN
 21 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -15.9, 63.2
GREEN
 22 31 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16, 63
GREEN
 23 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16.5, 62.3
GREEN
 24 01 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.8, 61.2
GREEN
 25 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.2, 60.2
GREEN
 26 01 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.1 million people -17.7, 59.1
GREEN
 27 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 no people 1.3 million people -18.2, 58.4
GREEN
 27 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 194 no people 2 million people -19, 56.8
GREEN
 27 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 830000 people -19.5, 55.3
GREEN
 27 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 185 no people 590000 people -19.7, 54
GREEN
 27 04 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 2 157 no people 820000 people -19.8, 52.5
ORANGE
 27 04 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 no people 10.6 million people -19.9, 51.3
RED
 27 05 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 820000 people 13.2 million people -20.1, 50.1
ORANGE
 27 05 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 176 2 million people 14.7 million people -20.3, 48.6 Madagascar
ORANGE
 27 06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 13.4 million people -20.7, 46 Madagascar
GREEN
 27 06 Feb 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 1.2 million people -21.7, 43.1
GREEN
 27 07 Feb 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -22.2, 41
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country
Toamasina Madagascar
Fianarantsoa Madagascar
Antananarivo Madagascar
Toliara Madagascar

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Masomeloka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (145 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 27 of 02 Feb 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Feb 2022 11:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.8
05 Feb 2022 11:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.7
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.7
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.4
05 Feb 2022 10:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.4
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 11:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Baly Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankomany Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antonibe Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 10:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 13:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 05:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 13:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antananabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Mandrony Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andamoty Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Maromandia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antsahampano Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marovato Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 14:00 Loharano Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 14:00 Itenina Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 02:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 02:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 17:00 Ankarimbary Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 17:00 Savana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 05:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.1
05 Feb 2022 13:00 Mananjary Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andranira Madagascar  0.1