Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
02 Feb 2022 06 UTC
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Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 1.9 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Feb 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
05 Feb 2022 06:00 - 05 Feb 2022 18:00
in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind (10-min*) Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 185 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 185 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France
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Wind

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Tropical Storm or higher		 Population in
Cat 1. or higher		 Countries
Green 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 56 No people No people
Green 2 26 Jan 2022 18:00 120 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 3 27 Jan 2022 00:00 120 20 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 4 27 Jan 2022 06:00 93 No people No people
Green 5 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 6 27 Jan 2022 18:00 139 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 7 28 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 8 28 Jan 2022 06:00 111 1.3 million No people Mauritius
Orange 9 28 Jan 2022 12:00 130 1.3 million 1.1 million Mauritius
Green 10 28 Jan 2022 18:00 130 1.9 million 30 thousand Mauritius
Green 11 29 Jan 2022 00:00 130 1.1 million No people Mauritius
Green 12 29 Jan 2022 06:00 130 1.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 13 29 Jan 2022 12:00 185 140 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 14 29 Jan 2022 18:00 167 440 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 15 30 Jan 2022 00:00 167 80 thousand No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 16 30 Jan 2022 06:00 176 No people No people
Green 17 30 Jan 2022 12:00 176 No people No people
Green 18 30 Jan 2022 18:00 204 2.3 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 19 31 Jan 2022 00:00 213 11.6 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Green 20 31 Jan 2022 06:00 204 11.4 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 21 31 Jan 2022 12:00 204 9 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Orange 22 31 Jan 2022 18:00 176 12.1 million 90 thousand Madagascar
Orange 23 01 Feb 2022 00:00 167 13.4 million 710 thousand Madagascar
Orange 24 01 Feb 2022 06:00 185 15.3 million 1.5 million Madagascar
Orange 25 01 Feb 2022 12:00 176 15.4 million 830 thousand Madagascar
Orange 26 01 Feb 2022 18:00 185 17.6 million 840 thousand Madagascar
Red 27 02 Feb 2022 00:00 185 18.3 million 2 million Madagascar
Red 28 02 Feb 2022 06:00 185 17.3 million 1.9 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS) 		Max winds
(km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher 		Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher 		Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -14.9, 86.6
GREEN
 2 26 Jan 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -15.7, 85.3
GREEN
 3 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16.4, 83.6
GREEN
 4 27 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -16.9, 81.8
GREEN
 5 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.9, 79.6
GREEN
 6 27 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -18, 77.5
GREEN
 7 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18, 76
GREEN
 8 28 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18.2, 74.6
GREEN
 9 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.3, 73.6
GREEN
 10 28 Jan 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.4, 72.6
GREEN
 11 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18.4, 71.8
GREEN
 12 29 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.1, 70.6
GREEN
 13 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -17.9, 69.9
GREEN
 14 29 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -17.7, 69.1
GREEN
 15 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.5, 68.1
GREEN
 16 30 Jan 2022 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.1, 67
GREEN
 17 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
GREEN
 18 30 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.6, 65.1
GREEN
 19 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
GREEN
 20 31 Jan 2022 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -15.8, 63.9
GREEN
 21 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -15.9, 63.2
GREEN
 22 31 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16, 63
GREEN
 23 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16.5, 62.3
GREEN
 24 01 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.8, 61.2
GREEN
 25 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.2, 60.2
GREEN
 26 01 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.1 million people -17.7, 59.1
GREEN
 27 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 no people 1.3 million people -18, 58.3
GREEN
 28 02 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 3 185 no people 1.6 million people -18.5, 57.6
GREEN
 28 02 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 2 176 no people 1.8 million people -19.2, 56.1
GREEN
 28 03 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 2 167 no people 640000 people -19.6, 54.6
GREEN
 28 03 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -19.6, 53.4
GREEN
 28 04 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 2 176 no people 1.1 million people -19.7, 52.1
RED
 28 04 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 3 185 420000 people 11 million people -19.8, 50.8
RED
 28 05 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 3 185 1.9 million people 14.6 million people -20, 49.1
ORANGE
 28 05 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 13.3 million people -20.7, 46.3 Madagascar
GREEN
 28 06 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 1.4 million people -21.2, 43.6 Madagascar
GREEN
 28 06 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 630000 people -21.7, 41.6
GREEN
 28 07 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -22.4, 40
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country
Toamasina Madagascar
Fianarantsoa Madagascar
Antananarivo Madagascar

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry VAT 12 Civ. Unpaved No 3800
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Vatomandry MGVAT Madagascar
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Masomeloka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2022 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (21 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 28 of 02 Feb 2022 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.7
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.6
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.4
05 Feb 2022 09:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.4
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.4
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.4
05 Feb 2022 06:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 05:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 05:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 02:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 05:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 03:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 02:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 06:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1