Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
03 Feb 2022 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number: TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population 2.3 million in Tropical Cyclone or higher
Maximum wind speed 194 km/h (10-min*)
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (05 Feb 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
05 Feb 2022 06:00 - 05 Feb 2022 18:00
in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind (10-min*) Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 194 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 194 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France
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Wind

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Tropical Storm or higher		 Population in
Cat 1. or higher		 Countries
Green 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 56 No people No people
Green 2 26 Jan 2022 18:00 120 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 3 27 Jan 2022 00:00 120 20 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 4 27 Jan 2022 06:00 93 No people No people
Green 5 27 Jan 2022 12:00 167 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 6 27 Jan 2022 18:00 139 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 7 28 Jan 2022 00:00 102 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 8 28 Jan 2022 06:00 111 1.3 million No people Mauritius
Orange 9 28 Jan 2022 12:00 130 1.3 million 1.1 million Mauritius
Green 10 28 Jan 2022 18:00 130 1.9 million 30 thousand Mauritius
Green 11 29 Jan 2022 00:00 130 1.1 million No people Mauritius
Green 12 29 Jan 2022 06:00 130 1.7 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 13 29 Jan 2022 12:00 185 140 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 14 29 Jan 2022 18:00 167 440 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 15 30 Jan 2022 00:00 167 80 thousand No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Green 16 30 Jan 2022 06:00 176 No people No people
Green 17 30 Jan 2022 12:00 176 No people No people
Green 18 30 Jan 2022 18:00 204 2.3 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 19 31 Jan 2022 00:00 213 11.6 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Green 20 31 Jan 2022 06:00 204 11.4 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 21 31 Jan 2022 12:00 204 9 million No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Orange 22 31 Jan 2022 18:00 176 12.1 million 90 thousand Madagascar
Orange 23 01 Feb 2022 00:00 167 13.4 million 710 thousand Madagascar
Orange 24 01 Feb 2022 06:00 185 15.3 million 1.5 million Madagascar
Orange 25 01 Feb 2022 12:00 176 15.4 million 830 thousand Madagascar
Orange 26 01 Feb 2022 18:00 185 17.6 million 840 thousand Madagascar
Red 27 02 Feb 2022 00:00 185 18.3 million 2 million Madagascar
Red 28 02 Feb 2022 06:00 185 17.3 million 1.9 million Madagascar
Red 29 02 Feb 2022 12:00 185 17.7 million 910 thousand Madagascar
Red 30 02 Feb 2022 18:00 185 18.1 million 1.8 million Madagascar
Red 31 03 Feb 2022 00:00 185 19 million 450 thousand Madagascar
Red 32 03 Feb 2022 06:00 204 20.1 million 2.4 million Madagascar
Red 33 03 Feb 2022 12:00 204 19.4 million 2.1 million Madagascar
Red 34 03 Feb 2022 18:00 194 16.6 million 2.3 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS) 		Max winds
(km/h)
(10-min*)		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher 		Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher 		Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 26 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -14.9, 86.6
GREEN
 2 26 Jan 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -15.7, 85.3
GREEN
 3 27 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -16.4, 83.6
GREEN
 4 27 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -16.9, 81.8
GREEN
 5 27 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.9, 79.6
GREEN
 6 27 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -18, 77.5
GREEN
 7 28 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18, 76
GREEN
 8 28 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18.2, 74.6
GREEN
 9 28 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.3, 73.6
GREEN
 10 28 Jan 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -18.4, 72.6
GREEN
 11 29 Jan 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18.4, 71.8
GREEN
 12 29 Jan 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -18.1, 70.6
GREEN
 13 29 Jan 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -17.9, 69.9
GREEN
 14 29 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -17.7, 69.1
GREEN
 15 30 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.5, 68.1
GREEN
 16 30 Jan 2022 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.1, 67
GREEN
 17 30 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.8, 66.1
GREEN
 18 30 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.6, 65.1
GREEN
 19 31 Jan 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.4, 64.5
GREEN
 20 31 Jan 2022 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -15.8, 63.9
GREEN
 21 31 Jan 2022 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -15.9, 63.2
GREEN
 22 31 Jan 2022 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16, 63
GREEN
 23 01 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16.5, 62.3
GREEN
 24 01 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.8, 61.2
GREEN
 25 01 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -17.2, 60.2
GREEN
 26 01 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.1 million people -17.7, 59.1
GREEN
 27 02 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 185 no people 1.3 million people -18, 58.3
GREEN
 28 02 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 3 185 no people 1.6 million people -18.5, 57.6
GREEN
 29 02 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 3 194 no people 1.9 million people -18.9, 56.7
GREEN
 30 02 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 3 185 no people 2.2 million people -18.9, 56.1
GREEN
 31 03 Feb 2022 00:00 Category 3 194 no people 2.2 million people -19, 55.7
GREEN
 32 03 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 2 167 no people 580000 people -19, 55.3
GREEN
 33 03 Feb 2022 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 850000 people -19.2, 55
GREEN
 34 03 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 840000 people -19.3, 54.5
GREEN
 34 04 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 2 176 no people 820000 people -19.6, 53.1
ORANGE
 34 04 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 3 194 25000 people 11.4 million people -19.8, 51.6
RED
 34 05 Feb 2022 06:00 Category 3 194 1.9 million people 13.2 million people -20.3, 49.6
RED
 34 05 Feb 2022 18:00 Category 1 120 1.5 million people 12.3 million people -20.5, 47.4 Madagascar
GREEN
 34 06 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 890000 people -21.4, 44.2 Madagascar
GREEN
 34 06 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 750000 people -22, 41.9
GREEN
 34 07 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 68000 people -22.6, 40.6
GREEN
 34 07 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -23.3, 39.9
GREEN
 34 08 Feb 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -24.1, 39.5
GREEN
 34 08 Feb 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -25, 39.2
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country
Toamasina Madagascar
Fianarantsoa Madagascar
Antananarivo Madagascar
Toliara Madagascar

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
Manja Toliara Madagascar City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Atsinanana ILK 10 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Mahanoro VVB 5 Civ. Unpaved No 4400
Mandabe WMD 290 Civ. Unpaved No 3500
Manja MJA 240 Civ. Unpaved No 5200

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mahanoro MGVVB Madagascar
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Ambodiharina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2022 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (168 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 33 of 03 Feb 2022 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
05 Feb 2022 11:00 Ambodiharina Madagascar  0.6
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Andranotsara Madagascar  0.6
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.5
07 Feb 2022 07:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.5
07 Feb 2022 06:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.4
07 Feb 2022 06:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.4
05 Feb 2022 11:00 Mahanoro Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 08:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 06:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 09:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.3
07 Feb 2022 09:00 Amado Mozambique  0.3
05 Feb 2022 13:00 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 07:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 10:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 08:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 09:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.3
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Build v7.1 2008-03-26 Europa Island  0.3
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Warren Point Europa Island  0.3
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Baly Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 09:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 01:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 08:00 Mite Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 08:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 08:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 08:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 11:00 Marofihitsa Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 11:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 11:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 11:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 11:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Marosiky Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 01:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 10:00 Androrangambo Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 09:00 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 12:00 Nosy-Varika Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 01:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 01:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 01:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Ambohidara Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Tama Mozambique  0.2
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 12:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 13:00 Anasindrano Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 20:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.2
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
05 Feb 2022 05:00 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Nosy Faly Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Barra Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.1
05 Feb 2022 05:00 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 01:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2022 09:00 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Bevoay Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 12:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambaramidada Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 04:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 05:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 12:00 Siane Mozambique  0.1
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 07:00 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 08:00 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Ampombilava Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 21:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.1
06 Feb 2022 21:00 Beira Mozambique  0.1
05 Feb 2022 14:00 Ambahy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 03:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Amboaboaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Matahibory Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Ambatoxavavy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 01:00 Andrafia Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 11:00 Mahela Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 11:00 Andranomahitsy Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 13:00 Ambohitsara Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 22:00 Ampasitsilavitra Madagascar  0.1
05 Feb 2022 23:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2022 00:00 Mailakapasy Madagascar  0.1
07 Feb 2022 02:00 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 12:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
07 Feb 2022 12:00 Induna Mozambique  0.1