Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ORLENE-22 in Mexico from 29 Sep 2022 03:00 UTC to 04 Oct 2022 03:00 UTC

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (03 Oct 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 03 Oct 2022 09:00 - 03 Oct 2022 15:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.3 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 03:00	139	930 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	29 Sep 2022 09:00	139	1.8 million	No people	Mexico
3	29 Sep 2022 15:00	120	1.8 million	810 thousand	Mexico
4	29 Sep 2022 21:00	157	2 million	90 thousand	Mexico
5	30 Sep 2022 03:00	157	2.1 million	40 thousand	Mexico
6	30 Sep 2022 09:00	167	710 thousand	3 thousand	Mexico
7	30 Sep 2022 15:00	157	920 thousand	4 thousand	Mexico
8	30 Sep 2022 21:00	130	1 million	250 thousand	Mexico
9	01 Oct 2022 03:00	120	1.8 million	110 thousand	Mexico
10	01 Oct 2022 09:00	148	1.6 million	20 thousand	Mexico
11	01 Oct 2022 15:00	120	1.1 million	110 thousand	Mexico
12	01 Oct 2022 21:00	157	1 million	90 thousand	Mexico
13	02 Oct 2022 00:00	194	1 million	90 thousand	Mexico
14	02 Oct 2022 03:00	204	1.1 million	60 thousand	Mexico
15	02 Oct 2022 09:00	157	2 million	60 thousand	Mexico
16	02 Oct 2022 15:00	204	1 million	100 thousand	Mexico
17	02 Oct 2022 21:00	185	1.2 million	60 thousand	Mexico
18	03 Oct 2022 03:00	167	1.2 million	90 thousand	Mexico
19	03 Oct 2022 09:00	157	1.3 million	90 thousand	Mexico
20	03 Oct 2022 15:00	120	1.6 million	140 thousand	Mexico
21	03 Oct 2022 21:00	56	1.3 million	110 thousand	Mexico
22	04 Oct 2022 03:00	37	1.3 million	110 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.4, -103.7
2	29 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -104.9
3	29 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.1, -105.9
4	29 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.4, -106.5
5	30 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.6, -106.7
6	30 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.9, -106.9
7	30 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.1, -107.1
8	30 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.6, -107.1
9	01 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	17, -107.2
10	01 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	17.2, -107
11	01 Oct 2022 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	17.6, -107
12	01 Oct 2022 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	17.9, -107.1
13	02 Oct 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	18.2, -107.1
14	02 Oct 2022 03:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	18.4, -106.9
15	02 Oct 2022 09:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	19, -106.8
16	02 Oct 2022 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	<1000 people	19.6, -106.9
17	02 Oct 2022 21:00	Category 3	185	<1000 people	78000 people	20.4, -106.9
18	03 Oct 2022 03:00	Category 2	167	3300 people	490000 people	21.4, -106.5	Mexico
19	03 Oct 2022 09:00	Category 2	157	19000 people	1 million people	22.1, -106.4
20	03 Oct 2022 15:00	Category 1	120	130000 people	1.3 million people	22.9, -105.7	Mexico
21	03 Oct 2022 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	23.6, -105.4	Mexico
22	04 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	24, -105	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mexico	1.2 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Durango	Mexico	100000 people
Sinaloa	Mexico	510000 people
Nayarit	Mexico	540000 people
Jalisco	Mexico	5200 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Villa Unión	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	13000 people
Escuinapa	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	28000 people
Mazatlan	Sinaloa	Mexico	Major city	330000 people
Acaponeta	Nayarit	Mexico	City	18000 people
Tecuala	Nayarit	Mexico	City	15000 people
Tuxpan	Nayarit	Mexico	City	23000 people
Santiago Ixcuintla	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
La Candelaria del Alto		1940				0
General Rafael Buelna International	MZT	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8800
Rancho los Cabras		3				0
Acaponeta		84				0
Teacapan		6				0
San Blas		3				0
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
El Llano		12				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mazatlan	MXMZT	Mexico
San Blas	MXSBS	Mexico
Ipala		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Agua Milpa	Agua Milpa	Santiago	1994

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Isla de Palmito del Verde, Mexico. This height is estimated for 03 Oct 2022 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 20 of 03 Oct 2022 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.6
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.6
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.5
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.5
	03 Oct 2022 13:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2022 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2022 12:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 12:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 13:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 14:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 11:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	03 Oct 2022 15:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1