Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARL-22 in Mexico from 11 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC to 13 Oct 2022 21:00 UTC

13 Oct 2022 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARL-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	93 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (13 Oct 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 14 Oct 2022 18:00 - 15 Oct 2022 06:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	93 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	11 Oct 2022 21:00	83	2.7 million	No people	Mexico
2	12 Oct 2022 03:00	83	5.1 million	No people	Mexico
3	12 Oct 2022 09:00	83	2.7 million	No people	Mexico
4	12 Oct 2022 15:00	74	2.5 million	No people	Mexico
5	12 Oct 2022 18:00	93	2.5 million	No people	Mexico
6	12 Oct 2022 21:00	102	2.5 million	No people	Mexico
7	13 Oct 2022 03:00	93	2.7 million	No people	Mexico
8	13 Oct 2022 09:00	83	2.5 million	No people	Mexico
9	13 Oct 2022 15:00	83	2.6 million	No people	Mexico
10	13 Oct 2022 21:00	74	3.1 million	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	11 Oct 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	19.6, -94.4
2	12 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	12000 people	20.5, -94.9
3	12 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	21.1, -94.9
4	12 Oct 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	21.7, -94.7
5	12 Oct 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	22, -94.5
6	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	22.2, -94.4
7	13 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	22.4, -94.3
8	13 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	22.4, -94.4
9	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	21.7, -93.9
10	13 Oct 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	20.9, -93.5
10	14 Oct 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	7000 people	20.1, -93.2
10	14 Oct 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.3 million people	19.1, -93.1
10	15 Oct 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.3, -93.5	Mexico
10	15 Oct 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	17.5, -94.3	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Mexico	3 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Tabasco	Mexico	1.2 million people
Veracruz	Mexico	1.7 million people
Chiapas	Mexico	59000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Jalpa	Tabasco	Mexico	City	15000 people
Cunduacán	Tabasco	Mexico	City	17000 people
Coatzacoalcos	Veracruz	Mexico	City	230000 people
Cárdenas	Tabasco	Mexico	City	81000 people
Catemaco	Veracruz	Mexico	City	24000 people
San Andrés Tuxtla	Veracruz	Mexico	City	-
Santiago Tuxtla	Veracruz	Mexico	City	16000 people
Veracruz	Veracruz	Mexico	Major city	560000 people
Alvarado	Veracruz	Mexico	City	21000 people
Tiacotalpan	Veracruz	Mexico	City	-
Huimanguillo	Tabasco	Mexico	City	26000 people
Cosoleacaque	Veracruz	Mexico	City	20000 people
Minatitlán	Veracruz	Mexico	City	150000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Minatitlan	MTT	40	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6800
Lerdo de Tejada		40				0
Minatitlan Old		27				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Dos Bocas	MXDBT	Mexico
Frontera	MXFRN	Mexico
Rabon Grande		Mexico
Coatzacoalcos	MXCOA	Mexico
Nanchital	MXNAN	Mexico
Alvarado	MXAVD	Mexico
Vera Cruz	MXVER	Mexico
Minatitlan	MXMTT	Mexico

Nuclear plants

Name	Country	Reactors
LAGUNA VERDE	MEXICO	2

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in South Padre Island, United States. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2022 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (220 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 13 Oct 2022 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Oct 2022 10:00	South Padre Island	United States	0.5
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.5
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.5
	13 Oct 2022 12:00	Balantanche	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Champoton	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Haltunchen	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Seybaplaya	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Palacios	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 11:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 11:00	Laguna Vista	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 11:00	Laguna Heights	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 11:00	Port Isabel	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Nadeau	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Texas City Junction	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Bayou Vista	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Texas City	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Anderson Ways	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Virginia Point	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Port Bolivar	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Fort Travis	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Flake	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Elmgrove	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Crystal Beach	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Spanish Village	United States	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Quintana	United States	0.4
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Arista	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Hoquel	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.4
	14 Oct 2022 13:00	Majahual	Mexico	0.4
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Port Ingleside	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Country Acres Colonia	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Aransas Pass	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Estes	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Shell Ridge	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Flour Bluff	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 10:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Surfside	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Surfside Beach	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Mims	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Port Morris	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Galveston	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Hoskins	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Rockport	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Copano Village	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Fulton	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Matagorda	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Chinquapin	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Bay Harbor	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Sea Isle	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Patton	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	High Island	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Gulf Park	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Valasco Heights	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Freeport	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Hoskins	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	La Pesca	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Constance Beach	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Peveto Beach	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Caplen	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Gilchrist	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Sabancuy	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Noham	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Bryan Beach	United States	0.3
	14 Oct 2022 12:00	Calderas	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 12:00	Mustang Beach	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 12:00	Port Aransas	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Cameron	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 10:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Porfirio Diaz	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Chenkan	Mexico	0.3
	14 Oct 2022 12:00	Dos Hermanas	Mexico	0.3
	14 Oct 2022 04:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2022 20:00	Sisal	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 20:00	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.3
	12 Oct 2022 20:00	Celestum	Mexico	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Oak Grove	United States	0.3
	13 Oct 2022 20:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Grand Chenier	United States	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 20:00	Los Pericos	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	La Majada	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 13:00	Gulf Park Estates	United States	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	San Pedro	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 16:00	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 16:00	Agua Dulce	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 15:00	Santeneja	Belize	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 15:00	Monte de Oro	Mexico	0.2
	15 Oct 2022 03:00	Tupilco	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 15:00	Yarborough	United States	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 18:00	Francisco I. Madero	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 04:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 17:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 04:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 20:00	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 20:00	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 20:00	Paso Real	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 10:00	Xcalak	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	West Point	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 13:00	Hilda	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 13:00	Gautier	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Bassa Bassa	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Grand Ecaille	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Breton	United States	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 06:00	Buenavista	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Boqueron	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 18:00	Hidalgo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Pueblo Viejo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Primero de Mayo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Tampico Alta	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Laja	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Chelem	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Progreso	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Pixoy	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	El Capulin	Nicaragua	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	Barrancones	Honduras	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	Condega	Honduras	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	Cedeno	Honduras	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Cheniere Au Tigre	United States	0.2
	11 Oct 2022 23:00	Tonala	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 21:00	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 13:00	Pascagoula	United States	0.2
	11 Oct 2022 23:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.2
	11 Oct 2022 23:00	Alvarado	Mexico	0.2
	11 Oct 2022 23:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 06:00	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 19:00	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Leeville	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Port Fourchon	United States	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 00:00	Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Tepeguahe	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 10:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 09:00	Chetumal	Mexico	0.2
	14 Oct 2022 09:00	Calderita	Mexico	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	El Carmen	Nicaragua	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	Gualora	Honduras	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 09:00	Santo Tomas	Nicaragua	0.2
	12 Oct 2022 09:00	Mangle Alto	Nicaragua	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Sunrise	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Buras	United States	0.2
	13 Oct 2022 20:00	Nautla	Mexico	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 20:00	El Laurel	Mexico	0.1
	14 Oct 2022 18:00	Sanchez Magallanes	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	Conchaguita	El Salvador	0.1
	11 Oct 2022 23:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	La Concepion	Mexico	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Cheniere Caminada	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Grand Isle	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Ostrica	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	Neptune	United States	0.1
	14 Oct 2022 19:00	Bacalar Chico	Belize	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 15:00	La Mata	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 03:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Barra de San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Puerto de San Benito	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Telchac Puerto	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Chabihau	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Mina de Oro	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Cerrito	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 21:00	Chisahcab	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Bayou La Batre	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Coden	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 22:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Nelson	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Heron Bay	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Alabama Port	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Fort Jackson	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Boothville	United States	0.1
	11 Oct 2022 23:00	Salinas	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Tahuesco	Guatemala	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Nueva Venecia	Guatemala	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	Guerrero	El Salvador	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 06:00	Tenixtepec	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 05:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 12:00	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 10:00	San Dionisio del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Swift	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Romar Beach	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Miffin	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 22:00	Rio Lagartos	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Dauphin Island	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Cedar Grove	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Gasque	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Magnolia Springs	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Oyster Bay	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Bon Secaur	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Oak	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 11:00	Gulf Shores	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 08:00	Las Pozas	Nicaragua	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 18:00	Duvic	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Surf	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 19:00	Sun N Sand Beaches	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 00:00	Veracruz	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 05:00	Vega de Alatorre	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 05:00	Emilio Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 05:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 13:00	Fort Gaines	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 17:00	Fort Morgan	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 10:00	Gulf Highlands	United States	0.1
	14 Oct 2022 06:00	Vigia Chico	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 02:00	Conejo	Mexico	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	El Tulate	Guatemala	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Davis Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Allanton	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Mexico Beach	United States	0.1
	13 Oct 2022 16:00	Beacon Hill	United States	0.1
	12 Oct 2022 07:00	Huitzitzil	Guatemala	0.1