Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico
20 Oct 2022 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2022-000345-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 290 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 213 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (23 Oct 20:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    23 Oct 2022 12:00 - 24 Oct 2022 12:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 157 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 213 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      157 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 350000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 167 2 million 130 thousand Mexico
        Orange 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 167 2.6 million 460 thousand Mexico
        Orange 3 20 Oct 2022 15:00 157 2.8 million 350 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Oct 2022 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.2, -101.3
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Oct 2022 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -101.5
          GREEN
          		 3 20 Oct 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.2, -102
          GREEN
          		 3 21 Oct 2022 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.4, -102.8
          GREEN
          		 3 21 Oct 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15.7, -103.7
          GREEN
          		 3 22 Oct 2022 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 16.3, -104.6
          GREEN
          		 3 22 Oct 2022 12:00 Category 1 139 no people 69000 people 17.2, -105.5
          GREEN
          		 3 23 Oct 2022 00:00 Category 1 148 <1000 people 780000 people 18.6, -106
          ORANGE
          		 3 23 Oct 2022 12:00 Category 2 157 350000 people 2.7 million people 20.3, -105.9
          GREEN
          		 3 24 Oct 2022 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 24, -104 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Mexico 330000 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Jalisco Mexico 1800 people
          Nayarit Mexico 270000 people
          Durango Mexico 60000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
          Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -
          Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 23000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          El Llano 12 0
          San Blas 3 0
          La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          San Blas MXSBS Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          G. Franci Poanas 1968
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.6 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in San Blas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2022 20:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 20 Oct 2022 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          23 Oct 2022 20:00 San Blas Mexico  0.6
          23 Oct 2022 20:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.6
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Corrales Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 18:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 16:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 19:00 La Lima Mexico  0.3
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 17:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 13:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 15:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 23:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 14:00 Pizota Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2022 10:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2022 16:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1