Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for FREDDY-23 in Mozambique, Madagascar from 06 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC to 20 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23

in Mozambique, Madagascar

20 Feb 2023 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2023-000023-MDG
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Madagascar
Exposed population	2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	250 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (06 Feb 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 24 Feb 2023 00:00 - 25 Feb 2023 00:00 in Zimbabwe

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	204 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	250 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

204 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	185	No people	No people
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	185	No people	No people
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	194	No people	No people
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	194	No people	No people
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	204	No people	No people
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	185	No people	No people
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	176	No people	No people
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	176	No people	No people
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	157	No people	No people
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	139	No people	No people
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	148	No people	No people
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	157	No people	No people
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	157	No people	No people
15	10 Feb 2023 00:00	157	No people	No people
16	10 Feb 2023 12:00	185	No people	No people
17	11 Feb 2023 00:00	185	No people	No people
18	11 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
19	12 Feb 2023 00:00	213	No people	No people
20	12 Feb 2023 12:00	185	No people	No people
21	13 Feb 2023 00:00	204	No people	No people
22	13 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
23	14 Feb 2023 00:00	204	No people	No people
24	14 Feb 2023 12:00	204	No people	No people
25	15 Feb 2023 00:00	241	No people	No people
26	15 Feb 2023 12:00	250	4 thousand	No people	Mauritius
27	16 Feb 2023 00:00	250	No people	No people
28	16 Feb 2023 12:00	231	2.5 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
29	17 Feb 2023 00:00	204	13.7 million	1000 thousand	Madagascar
30	17 Feb 2023 12:00	176	13.7 million	1.8 million	Madagascar
31	18 Feb 2023 00:00	204	14.3 million	1.1 million	Madagascar
32	18 Feb 2023 12:00	185	10.4 million	1.8 million	Madagascar
33	19 Feb 2023 00:00	213	15.2 million	2.2 million	Madagascar
34	19 Feb 2023 12:00	194	10.7 million	1.4 million	Madagascar
35	20 Feb 2023 00:00	204	18.2 million	3 million	Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.2, 118.6
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-12.6, 118.5
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13, 118.5
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-13.9, 117.8
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 117
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-14.6, 116.1
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-14.9, 115.3
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-15.1, 114.5
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-15.3, 113.7
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-16, 113.1
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16.3, 112.6
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-16, 111
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-15.4, 110.3
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-15.4, 109.6
15	10 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-15.3, 108.4
16	10 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-14.8, 106.5
17	11 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-14.8, 104.8
18	11 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-14.8, 103
19	12 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	-15, 101.2
20	12 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-15.1, 98.9
21	13 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	-15.1, 96.8
22	13 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	-15.4, 94.6
23	14 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	-15.4, 92.5
24	14 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	-15.4, 90
25	15 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-15.3, 87.3
26	15 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	-15, 84.9
27	16 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	-14.8, 82.5
28	16 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	-15, 79.5
29	17 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-15.4, 76.6
30	17 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	-15.8, 73.8
31	18 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	-16.1, 71.5
32	18 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	-16.2, 69.4
33	19 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	-16.7, 67
34	19 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	-17.4, 64.1
35	20 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 4	241	no people	1.2 million people	-18.1, 60.7
35	20 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 4	222	no people	2.1 million people	-19.1, 57.3
35	21 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	1.3 million people	-19.9, 53.8
35	21 Feb 2023 12:00	Category 3	204	1.7 million people	7.6 million people	-20.8, 50.3
35	22 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 2	167	1.5 million people	8 million people	-21.6, 47.2	Madagascar
35	23 Feb 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.5 million people	-21.7, 41.5
35	24 Feb 2023 00:00	Category 1	120	880000 people	7.4 million people	-20.6, 36.1
35	25 Feb 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-20.4, 31.2	Zimbabwe

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Madagascar	2.1 million people
Mozambique	460000 people
Zimbabwe	400000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	2 million people
Toliara	Madagascar	160000 people
Sofala	Mozambique	180000 people
Manica	Mozambique	290000 people
Manicaland	Zimbabwe	170000 people
Masvingo	Zimbabwe	220000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Manja	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Beroroha	WBO	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Manja	MJA	240	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5200
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Chipinge	CHJ	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Bangazaan	Buzi	1987
	Ratelshoek	Chibudzana	1985
	Siya	Turgwe	1976
Lake McDougal	Manjirenji	Chiredzi	1967
	Nyatare	Nyatare	1985
Kyle	Kyle	Mutirikwi	1960

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Sabui, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2023 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (65 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 12 Feb 2023 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Sabui	Indonesia	0.5
	06 Feb 2023 12:00	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.4
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Pagarantimun	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Koealasapo	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Sungaitapah	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Kualalupak	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Aluhaluh	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 11:00	Mutua	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 11:00	Tandjoengselaka	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Loentji	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Kandangan	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Batakam	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 09:00	Pulaukutjing	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 11:00	Bapuju	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 11:00	Bahaur	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 12:00	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.3
	06 Feb 2023 18:00	Derby	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Semisir	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 15:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Makasar	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Tandjungniur	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Tempilang	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Keludin	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 15:00	Pender	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 13:00	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 13:00	Salinau	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 13:00	Semaras	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 13:00	Okaoka	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Manda	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 13:00	Tapianbalai	Indonesia	0.2
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Sanrabone	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Tamalaba	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Tjadia	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Bisali	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Kanaoengan	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Anjai	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Radjik	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Bontobonto	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 16:00	Broome	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Tandjungklumpang	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Karamak	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 14:00	Boenati	Indonesia	0.1
	08 Feb 2023 05:00	Wickham	Australia	0.1
	08 Feb 2023 05:00	Point Samson	Australia	0.1
	08 Feb 2023 05:00	Cossack	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 12:00	Segintong	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 16:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Gailesong	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 16:00	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 16:00	Waterbank	Australia	0.1
	08 Feb 2023 12:00	Mardie	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Lait	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 08:00	Tandjungkiras	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Tiempae	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Mandalle	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Padaelo	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 10:00	Sampungbinangu	Indonesia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 17:00	Condon	Australia	0.1
	08 Feb 2023 13:00	Ah Chong I	Australia	0.1
	08 Feb 2023 14:00	East Lewis I	Australia	0.1
	06 Feb 2023 14:00	Sekapoeng	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.