Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

22 May 2024 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Somalia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	111 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 May 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	111 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1300 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	93	No people	No people
2	17 May 2024 00:00	83	No people	No people
3	17 May 2024 12:00	74	No people	No people
4	18 May 2024 00:00	74	No people	No people
5	18 May 2024 12:00	83	No people	No people
6	19 May 2024 00:00	102	No people	No people
7	19 May 2024 12:00	102	No people	No people
8	20 May 2024 00:00	102	No people	No people
9	20 May 2024 12:00	93	No people	No people
10	21 May 2024 00:00	102	No people	No people
11	21 May 2024 12:00	111	No people	No people
12	22 May 2024 00:00	83	1 thousand	No people	Somalia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	16 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-9.1, 52.5
2	17 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-9.1, 51.9
3	17 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-8.8, 50.4
4	18 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-8, 49.2
5	18 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-7.8, 47.9
6	19 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-7.5, 46.6
7	19 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-7.4, 45.2
8	20 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-6.3, 44.5
9	20 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-5.8, 43.8
10	21 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-5.2, 43
11	21 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	-4.7, 42.2
12	22 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1300 people	-3.4, 41.9
12	22 May 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-1.5, 42.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Somalia	<1000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Jubbada Hoose	Somalia	<1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Saint Pierre Island		Seychelles
Providence Island		Seychelles

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Kipini, Kenya. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (19 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 22 May 2024 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 01:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	16 May 2024 15:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 06:00	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 06:00	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 08:00	Siyu	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 08:00	Rasini	Kenya	0.1
	16 May 2024 15:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 05:00	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	22 May 2024 05:00	Lamu	Kenya	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.