Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	137 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (21 May 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	84 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	137 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

84 km/h Current Max.

Up to 4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	84	Few people	No people
2	16 May 2024 18:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 May 2024 00:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles
4	17 May 2024 06:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles
5	17 May 2024 12:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles
6	17 May 2024 18:00	106	Few people	No people	Seychelles
7	18 May 2024 00:00	116	Few people	No people
8	18 May 2024 06:00	106	Few people	No people
9	18 May 2024 12:00	106	Few people	No people
10	18 May 2024 18:00	127	Few people	No people
11	19 May 2024 00:00	127	Few people	No people
12	19 May 2024 06:00	127	Few people	No people
13	19 May 2024 12:00	116	Few people	No people	Seychelles
14	19 May 2024 18:00	106	Few people	No people
15	20 May 2024 00:00	95	Few people	No people
16	20 May 2024 06:00	84	Few people	No people
17	20 May 2024 12:00	84	Few people	No people
18	20 May 2024 18:00	106	1.3 million	No people	Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia
19	21 May 2024 00:00	116	750 thousand	No people	Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia
20	21 May 2024 06:00	127	870 thousand	No people	Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia
21	21 May 2024 12:00	137	770 thousand	No people	Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania
22	21 May 2024 18:00	116	350 thousand	No people	Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania
23	22 May 2024 00:00	84	4 million	No people	Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)
1	16 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9, 52.6
2	16 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	<1000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9.1, 52.3
3	17 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9.1, 51.7
4	17 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-9, 51
5	17 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-8.8, 50.4
6	17 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-8.4, 49.7
7	18 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-8.1, 49.3
8	18 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-7.9, 48.7
9	18 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-7.8, 47.8
10	18 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-7.8, 47.1
11	19 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-7.5, 46.4
12	19 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-7.6, 45.9
13	19 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-7.4, 45.4
14	19 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-7, 45
15	20 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-6.5, 44.4
16	20 May 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	83	-6.3, 44
17	20 May 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-6, 43.7
18	20 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	540000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-5.7, 43.3
19	21 May 2024 00:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-5.4, 43
20	21 May 2024 06:00	Category 1	127	no people	120000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-4.9, 42.5
21	21 May 2024 12:00	Category 1	137	no people	500000 people	Tropical Cyclone	120	-4.7, 42.1
22	21 May 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	116	no people	100000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	102	-4.2, 42
23	22 May 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	3.8 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-3.7, 42.1
23	22 May 2024 06:00	Tropical depression	38	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	33	-3.1, 42.4

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Kenya	3.1 million people
Somalia	160000 people
Tanzania	230000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Coast	Kenya	2.9 million people
Jubbada Hoose	Somalia	160000 people
North-Eastern	Kenya	220000 people
Pemba North	Tanzania	91000 people
Pemba South	Tanzania	140000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Lamu	Coast	Kenya	City	24000 people
Malindi	Coast	Kenya	City	68000 people
Mombasa	Coast	Kenya	Major city	790000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Lamu / Manda	LAU	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Kiwayu	KWY	unknown				0
Kiunga	KIU	unknown				0
Malindi	MYD	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4600
Bamburi	BMQ	unknown				0
Moi International	MBA	61	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11000
Pemba	PMA	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5000
Hola	HOA	unknown				0
Kisimayu	KMU	46	Civ.	Paved	No	12100
Farquhar		3	Priv.	Paved	No	3100
Alphonse		3	Civ.	Paved	No	3100

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Lamu	KELAU	Kenya
Malindi	KEMYD	Kenya
Kilifi Creek		Kenya
Kilifi		Kenya
Mombasa		Kenya
Mombasa	KEMBA	Kenya
Chake Chake		Tanzania
Chisimaio	SOKMU	Somalia
Saint Pierre Island		Seychelles
Providence Island		Seychelles

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Vanga, Kenya. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (109 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 20 May 2024 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 00:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.4
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kibele	Tanzania	0.4
	20 May 2024 12:00	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.4
	21 May 2024 01:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.4
	20 May 2024 12:00	Fumba	Tanzania	0.4
	20 May 2024 13:00	Dondo	Tanzania	0.4
	20 May 2024 13:00	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.4
	20 May 2024 13:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.4
	20 May 2024 12:00	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.4
	20 May 2024 12:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.3
	21 May 2024 01:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.3
	21 May 2024 01:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Chekea	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kiechuru	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Mwera	Tanzania	0.3
	21 May 2024 01:00	Makowe	Kenya	0.3
	21 May 2024 01:00	Kililana	Kenya	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Uzi	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 13:00	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.3
	20 May 2024 12:00	Libambai	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Amu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Lamu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Mombasa	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 00:00	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Taandani	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Mkarangama	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kirongwe	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Mkunumbi	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Hidio	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 13:00	Bawala	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 13:00	Magawa	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 13:00	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.2
	20 May 2024 13:00	Maganja	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 02:00	Pate	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Siyu	Kenya	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Rasini	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kipingwe	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 13:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Matondoni	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Chole	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 02:00	Sakura	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Handeru	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 04:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 13:00	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 12:00	Bopwe	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 01:00	Gazi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Ashuwei	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 12:00	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:00	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:00	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 00:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Mida	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Watamu	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:00	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Ukunda	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Tiwi	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:00	Jimbo	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Matsangoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:00	Marere	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 13:00	Lucete	Mozambique	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Jipe	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Rubu	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 02:00	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Kisima Chande	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 19:00	Magumba	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:00	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 01:00	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	21 May 2024 03:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 12:00	Quiterajo	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 12:00	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.