Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-24 in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States from 28 Jun 2024 21:00 UTC to 04 Jul 2024 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-24

in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States

04 Jul 2024 15 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-24 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States
Exposed population	9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (01 Jul 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Jamaica)
Landfall	between 07 Jul 2024 12:00 - 08 Jul 2024 12:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	269 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.3 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	139	4.7 million	20 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	167	4.9 million	320 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	167	6.8 million	2.2 million	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	167	4.1 million	70 thousand	Jamaica
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	185	3.9 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	204	3.6 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	213	5.6 million	30 thousand	Grenada
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	222	6.7 million	150 thousand	Grenada, Mexico
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	231	9.1 million	450 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Mexico
10	01 Jul 2024 03:00	213	9.3 million	530 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Mexico
11	01 Jul 2024 09:00	157	7.5 million	470 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Mexico, Belize
12	01 Jul 2024 15:00	222	6.8 million	490 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
13	01 Jul 2024 21:00	241	7.1 million	200 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
14	02 Jul 2024 03:00	148	9.1 million	350 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
15	02 Jul 2024 09:00	194	10.9 million	740 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
16	02 Jul 2024 15:00	222	16 million	2.7 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
17	02 Jul 2024 21:00	231	18 million	2.6 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
18	03 Jul 2024 03:00	231	19.6 million	2.3 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
19	03 Jul 2024 09:00	231	19.8 million	1.1 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
20	03 Jul 2024 15:00	231	19.9 million	1.9 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
21	03 Jul 2024 21:00	222	20.9 million	1.5 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
22	04 Jul 2024 03:00	167	20.9 million	2.1 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
23	04 Jul 2024 09:00	148	20.6 million	1.8 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
24	04 Jul 2024 15:00	130	20.6 million	2.3 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.1, -41.9
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.3, -43.6
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	9.8, -45.5
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	10, -47.8
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.1, -49.3
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	10.4, -51.2
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	10.7, -53.1
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	10.7, -54.9
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	300000 people	11.1, -56.5
10	01 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	740000 people	11.5, -58.1
11	01 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 3	194	130000 people	1.8 million people	11.7, -59.9
12	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 4	222	130000 people	1.3 million people	12.4, -61.3
13	01 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	241	no people	53000 people	13.2, -63.2
14	02 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	13.8, -64.9
15	02 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	14.6, -66.9
16	02 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 5	259	no people	4 million people	15.3, -68.9
17	02 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	250	no people	7.9 million people	15.9, -70.8
18	03 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	241	no people	8.7 million people	16.2, -72.7
19	03 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 4	231	210000 people	5.9 million people	16.6, -74.4
20	03 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 4	231	1.3 million people	4.1 million people	17.1, -76.1
21	03 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	222	770000 people	3 million people	17.5, -77.6
22	04 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	2.9 million people	18, -79.2
23	04 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	67000 people	18.5, -81
24	04 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 3	185	no people	180000 people	19, -82.6
24	05 Jul 2024 00:00	Category 2	167	47000 people	3.7 million people	19.5, -85.1
24	05 Jul 2024 12:00	Category 1	130	800000 people	4.4 million people	20.1, -87.9	Mexico
24	06 Jul 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2.4 million people	20.9, -90.3	Mexico
24	06 Jul 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	22, -92.4
24	07 Jul 2024 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	23, -94.2
24	07 Jul 2024 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	3.1 million people	23.9, -95.7
24	08 Jul 2024 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	4 million people	25.5, -97.5	Mexico
24	09 Jul 2024 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	28, -99.5	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Category 1 or higher strength
1.3 million people
810000 people
110000 people

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Category 1 or higher strength
140000 people
24000 people
77000 people
4100 people
150000 people
<1000 people
190000 people
230000 people
730000 people
450000 people
34000 people
32000 people
37000 people
7500 people
110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.