Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-24 in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States from 28 Jun 2024 21:00 UTC to 05 Jul 2024 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-24

in Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States

05 Jul 2024 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-24 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize, United States
Exposed population	9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.4 m (08 Jul 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Jamaica)
Landfall	between 07 Jul 2024 18:00 - 08 Jul 2024 06:00 in United States, Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	176 km/h	1.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	269 km/h	1.4 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

176 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	139	4.7 million	20 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	167	4.9 million	320 thousand	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	167	6.8 million	2.2 million	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	167	4.1 million	70 thousand	Jamaica
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	185	3.9 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	204	3.6 million	10 thousand	Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Jamaica, Cayman Islands
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	213	5.6 million	30 thousand	Grenada
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	222	6.7 million	150 thousand	Grenada, Mexico
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	231	9.1 million	450 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, Mexico
10	01 Jul 2024 03:00	213	9.3 million	530 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Mexico
11	01 Jul 2024 09:00	157	7.5 million	470 thousand	Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Mexico, Belize
12	01 Jul 2024 15:00	222	6.8 million	490 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
13	01 Jul 2024 21:00	241	7.1 million	200 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
14	02 Jul 2024 03:00	148	9.1 million	350 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
15	02 Jul 2024 09:00	194	10.9 million	740 thousand	Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
16	02 Jul 2024 15:00	222	16 million	2.7 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
17	02 Jul 2024 21:00	231	18 million	2.6 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
18	03 Jul 2024 03:00	231	19.6 million	2.3 million	Haiti, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Jamaica, Mexico
19	03 Jul 2024 09:00	231	19.8 million	1.1 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
20	03 Jul 2024 15:00	231	19.9 million	1.9 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
21	03 Jul 2024 21:00	222	20.9 million	1.5 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
22	04 Jul 2024 03:00	167	20.9 million	2.1 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
23	04 Jul 2024 09:00	148	20.6 million	1.8 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
24	04 Jul 2024 15:00	130	20.6 million	2.3 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico
25	04 Jul 2024 21:00	157	21.2 million	2 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize
26	05 Jul 2024 03:00	185	22.8 million	2.8 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize
27	05 Jul 2024 09:00	176	24.4 million	1.8 million	Haiti, Grenada, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Mexico, Belize

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	28 Jun 2024 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.1, -41.9
2	29 Jun 2024 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.3, -43.6
3	29 Jun 2024 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	9.8, -45.5
4	29 Jun 2024 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	10, -47.8
5	29 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	10.1, -49.3
6	30 Jun 2024 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	10.4, -51.2
7	30 Jun 2024 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	10.7, -53.1
8	30 Jun 2024 15:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	10.7, -54.9
9	30 Jun 2024 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	300000 people	11.1, -56.5
10	01 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	740000 people	11.5, -58.1
11	01 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 3	194	130000 people	1.8 million people	11.7, -59.9
12	01 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 4	222	130000 people	1.3 million people	12.4, -61.3
13	01 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	241	no people	53000 people	13.2, -63.2
14	02 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	13.8, -64.9
15	02 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	14.6, -66.9
16	02 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 5	259	no people	4 million people	15.3, -68.9
17	02 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	250	no people	7.9 million people	15.9, -70.8
18	03 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	241	no people	8.7 million people	16.2, -72.7
19	03 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 4	231	210000 people	5.9 million people	16.6, -74.4
20	03 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 4	231	1.3 million people	4.1 million people	17.1, -76.1
21	03 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 4	222	770000 people	3 million people	17.5, -77.6
22	04 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	2.9 million people	18, -79.2
23	04 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 3	194	no people	67000 people	18.5, -81
24	04 Jul 2024 15:00	Category 3	185	no people	180000 people	19, -82.6
25	04 Jul 2024 21:00	Category 2	176	no people	1.8 million people	19.5, -84.3
26	05 Jul 2024 03:00	Category 3	185	39000 people	2.2 million people	19.6, -85.5
27	05 Jul 2024 09:00	Category 2	176	370000 people	3.5 million people	20.1, -86.9	Mexico
27	05 Jul 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	2.5 million people	20.7, -88.7	Mexico
27	06 Jul 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	120000 people	21.7, -91
27	06 Jul 2024 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	22.9, -93.1
27	07 Jul 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	12000 people	23.8, -94.8
27	07 Jul 2024 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	3.1 million people	24.7, -96.1
27	08 Jul 2024 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	3.7 million people	26, -97.1	United States, Mexico
27	09 Jul 2024 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	5 million people	28, -98.4	United States
27	10 Jul 2024 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	30, -98	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Mexico	370000 people
Jamaica	1.3 million people
Grenada	110000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Quintana Roo	Mexico	180000 people
Yucatan	Mexico	200000 people
Westmoreland	Jamaica	140000 people
Hanover	Jamaica	24000 people
Saint James	Jamaica	4100 people
Saint Elizabeth	Jamaica	150000 people
Trelawny	Jamaica	<1000 people
Manchester	Jamaica	190000 people
Clarendon	Jamaica	230000 people
Saint Catherine	Jamaica	450000 people
Saint Andrew	Jamaica	34000 people
Kingston	Jamaica	32000 people
Saint Thomas	Jamaica	37000 people
Grenada	Grenada	110000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Valladolid	Yucatán	Mexico	City	39000 people
Spanish Town	Saint Catherine	Jamaica	City	140000 people
Saint George's	Saint George	Grenada	Capital	4300 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cozumel International	CZM	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8800
Playa Del Carmen	PCM	unknown				0
Tulum	TUY	2				0
Chichen Itza	CZA	31				0
		24				0
Negril	NEG	unknown				0
Mandeville Marlbrough	MVJ	unknown				0
Kirkvine		366				0
Norman Manley International	KIN	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8900
Point Salines International	GND	12	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Union Island	UNI	unknown				0
Carriacou	CRU	unknown				0
J F Mitchell		4	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Palm Island	PLI	unknown				0
Canouan		5	Civ.	Paved	No	3600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Cozumel	MXCZM	Mexico
Savanna la Mar	JMSLM	Jamaica
Bluefields		Jamaica
Black River	JMBLR	Jamaica
Port Kaiser	JMPKS	Jamaica
Salt River	JMSRI	Jamaica
Port Esquivel	JMPEV	Jamaica
Kingston	JMKIN	Jamaica
Saint George's	GDSTG	Grenada
Admiralty Bay		Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.4m in South Padre Island, United States. This height is estimated for 08 Jul 2024 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (151 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 27 of 05 Jul 2024 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Jul 2024 07:00	South Padre Island	United States	1.4
	08 Jul 2024 08:00	Boca Chica	United States	1.3
	08 Jul 2024 08:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	1.3
	08 Jul 2024 08:00	Holly Beach	United States	1.2
	08 Jul 2024 08:00	Laguna Vista	United States	1.2
	08 Jul 2024 08:00	Laguna Heights	United States	1.2
	08 Jul 2024 08:00	Port Isabel	United States	1.2
	08 Jul 2024 05:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.8
	03 Jul 2024 20:00	Brazalitta	Jamaica	0.8
	03 Jul 2024 20:00	Mahoe Gardens	Jamaica	0.7
	05 Jul 2024 12:00	Chacalal	Mexico	0.7
	06 Jul 2024 03:00	Celestum	Mexico	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Palacios	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Port Ingleside	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Country Acres Colonia	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Aransas Pass	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Estes	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Shell Ridge	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Flour Bluff	United States	0.7
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Nadeau	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Texas City Junction	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Bayou Vista	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Texas City	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Virginia Point	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Port Bolivar	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Fort Travis	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Flake	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Elmgrove	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Crystal Beach	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 14:00	Yarborough	United States	0.6
	06 Jul 2024 03:00	Balantanche	Mexico	0.6
	05 Jul 2024 23:00	Chelem	Mexico	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Anderson Ways	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 21:00	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Rockport	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Copano Village	United States	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Fulton	United States	0.6
	06 Jul 2024 01:00	Sisal	Mexico	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Spanish Village	United States	0.6
	03 Jul 2024 20:00	Old Harbor	Jamaica	0.6
	08 Jul 2024 17:00	Mustang Beach	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 17:00	Port Aransas	United States	0.5
	06 Jul 2024 00:00	Progreso	Mexico	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 22:00	Patton	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	High Island	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Caplen	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Gilchrist	United States	0.5
	05 Jul 2024 12:00	Xelha	Mexico	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Hoskins	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Valasco Heights	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Freeport	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 17:00	Quintana	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Mims	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Hoskins	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Port Morris	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 22:00	Bay Harbor	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Chinquapin	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Matagorda	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Constance Beach	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Peveto Beach	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 22:00	Sea Isle	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 19:00	Holly Beach	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Cameron	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Surfside	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Surfside Beach	United States	0.5
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Galveston	United States	0.4
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Gulf Park	United States	0.4
	08 Jul 2024 18:00	Bryan Beach	United States	0.4
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.4
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Sabancuy	Mexico	0.4
	08 Jul 2024 20:00	Oak Grove	United States	0.4
	05 Jul 2024 17:00	Noham	Mexico	0.4
	09 Jul 2024 00:00	Grand Chenier	United States	0.4
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Paso Real	Mexico	0.4
	06 Jul 2024 03:00	Seybaplaya	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Chabihau	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Mina de Oro	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Telchac Puerto	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 17:00	Porfirio Diaz	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 17:00	Chenkan	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 11:00	Tulum	Mexico	0.3
	06 Jul 2024 03:00	Champoton	Mexico	0.3
	06 Jul 2024 03:00	Haltunchen	Mexico	0.3
	08 Jul 2024 22:00	Cheniere Au Tigre	United States	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 19:00	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.3
	06 Jul 2024 03:00	Hoquel	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 22:00	Pixoy	Mexico	0.3
	03 Jul 2024 22:00	Southfield	Jamaica	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 12:00	Palmul	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.3
	05 Jul 2024 10:00	Cedral	Mexico	0.2
	04 Jul 2024 00:00	Black River	Jamaica	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 10:00	Vigia Chico	Mexico	0.2
	03 Jul 2024 22:00	Alligator Pond	Jamaica	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 11:00	El Cuyo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 15:00	Cerrito	Mexico	0.2
	04 Jul 2024 01:00	Little London	Jamaica	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 13:00	Guanimar	Cuba	0.2
	07 Jul 2024 18:00	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.2
	07 Jul 2024 18:00	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 11:00	Chipepte	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 11:00	Playa del Carmen	Mexico	0.2
	07 Jul 2024 15:00	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.2
	03 Jul 2024 21:00	Alley	Jamaica	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 10:00	Chacmuchuch	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 11:00	Cozumel	Mexico	0.2
	07 Jul 2024 19:00	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.2
	03 Jul 2024 19:00	Port Royal	Jamaica	0.2
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Yallahs	Jamaica	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 14:00	Surgidero de Batabano	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 14:00	Batabano	Cuba	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 14:00	Chisahcab	Mexico	0.2
	06 Jul 2024 04:00	Monte de Oro	Mexico	0.2
	05 Jul 2024 14:00	Punta de Fisga	Cuba	0.2
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Morant Bay	Jamaica	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 01:00	Savanna la Mar	Jamaica	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 14:00	El Cajio	Cuba	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 13:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 10:00	Punta Molas del Norte	Mexico	0.1
	06 Jul 2024 04:00	Francisco I. Madero	Mexico	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 13:00	Aguas Claras	Cuba	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Port Morant	Jamaica	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 01:00	Cambelton	Jamaica	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 01:00	Green Island	Jamaica	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 12:00	Half Way Pond	Cayman Islands	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 11:00	Puerto Morelos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 11:00	Bodden Town	Cayman Islands	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 13:00	Rio Lagartos	Mexico	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 09:00	Tunas de Zaza	Cuba	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 20:00	Kingston	Jamaica	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 16:00	Playa Caimito	Cuba	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 12:00	Battle Ground	Cayman Islands	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 12:00	George Town	Cayman Islands	0.1
	07 Jul 2024 15:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.1
	03 Jul 2024 18:00	Bull Bay	Jamaica	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 01:00	Negril	Jamaica	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 17:00	Playa de Tasajera	Cuba	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 09:00	El Socorro	Cuba	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 11:00	Brinkleys	Cayman Islands	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 11:00	Breakers	Cayman Islands	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 11:00	Gun Bay	Cayman Islands	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 22:00	Cancun	Mexico	0.1
	04 Jul 2024 22:00	Puerto Juarez	Mexico	0.1
	05 Jul 2024 15:00	San Pedro	Mexico	0.1

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While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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