Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KIRK-24
in Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KIRK-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 231 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (07 Oct 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Portugal)
Landfall between
09 Oct 2024 12:00 - 10 Oct 2024 00:00

in France

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 120 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 231 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2024 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 2 30 Sep 2024 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2024 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2024 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2024 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 6 01 Oct 2024 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2024 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2024 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2024 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 10 02 Oct 2024 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2024 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2024 15:00 213 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2024 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 14 03 Oct 2024 00:00 231 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2024 03:00 241 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2024 09:00 222 5 thousand No people Portugal
Green 17 03 Oct 2024 15:00 222 5 thousand No people Portugal
Green 18 03 Oct 2024 21:00 231 5 thousand No people Portugal
Green 19 04 Oct 2024 03:00 250 5 thousand No people Portugal
Green 20 04 Oct 2024 09:00 231 5 thousand No people Portugal
Green 21 04 Oct 2024 15:00 222 7.2 million No people Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, United Kingdom, Guernsey
Green 22 04 Oct 2024 21:00 213 100.2 million No people Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, United Kingdom, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands
Green 23 05 Oct 2024 03:00 213 107.5 million No people Portugal, Spain, Ireland, France, United Kingdom, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands
Green 24 05 Oct 2024 09:00 204 146 million No people Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany
Green 25 05 Oct 2024 15:00 194 162.7 million No people Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Norway, Denmark, Sweden
Green 26 05 Oct 2024 21:00 194 168.9 million No people Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Poland
Green 27 06 Oct 2024 03:00 185 130.4 million No people Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Germany
Green 28 06 Oct 2024 09:00 167 130.9 million No people Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany
Green 29 06 Oct 2024 15:00 157 147.8 million No people Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom, France, Guernsey, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany, Denmark
Green 30 06 Oct 2024 21:00 139 16 million No people Portugal, Spain, France, Guernsey, United Kingdom
Green 31 07 Oct 2024 03:00 130 52.9 million No people Portugal, Spain, France, Guernsey, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany, Switzerland
Green 32 07 Oct 2024 09:00 120 19 million No people Portugal, Spain, France
Green 33 07 Oct 2024 15:00 120 43.6 million No people Portugal, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Belgium, Luxembourg, Germany

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2024 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.8, -32.5
GREEN
2 30 Sep 2024 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -33.2
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2024 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14, -34.1
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2024 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.5, -34.8
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2024 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.6, -35.7
GREEN
6 01 Oct 2024 03:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.4, -36.8
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2024 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.9, -38
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2024 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.3, -39.2
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2024 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 16.2, -40.1
GREEN
10 02 Oct 2024 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 16.7, -40.8
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2024 09:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 17.5, -42.1
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2024 15:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 18, -43
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2024 21:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 18.9, -44
GREEN
14 03 Oct 2024 00:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 19.3, -44.3
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2024 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 19.5, -44.5
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2024 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 20, -45
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2024 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 20.4, -45.9
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2024 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 21.1, -46.7
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2024 03:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 21.5, -47.5
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2024 09:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 22.3, -48.1
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2024 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 23, -48.9
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2024 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 23.7, -49.4
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2024 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 25, -49.8
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2024 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 26.2, -50.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2024 15:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 27.6, -50.3
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2024 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 29.6, -50
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2024 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 31.3, -49.3
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2024 09:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 33.5, -49
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2024 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 35.6, -47.7
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2024 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 37, -46.2
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2024 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 38.6, -43.6
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2024 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 40.2, -41
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2024 15:00 Category 1 120 no people 4600 people 41.7, -38.4
GREEN
33 08 Oct 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 8400 people 43.1, -33.6
GREEN
33 08 Oct 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 43.5, -25.7
GREEN
33 09 Oct 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 6.9 million people 43.7, -16.1
GREEN
33 09 Oct 2024 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 41.7 million people 45.4, -6.1
GREEN
33 10 Oct 2024 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 48.5, 4.5 France
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Faja Grande, Portugal. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2024 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (39 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 04 Oct 2024 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 2 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Oct 2024 21:00 Faja Grande Portugal  0.2
07 Oct 2024 22:00 Ponta Delgada Portugal  0.2
07 Oct 2024 22:00 Lajes Portugal  0.2
07 Oct 2024 22:00 Santa Cruz Portugal  0.2
07 Oct 2024 22:00 Flores Portugal  0.2
07 Oct 2024 22:00 Corvo Portugal  0.2
08 Oct 2024 02:00 Beira Mar Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 02:00 Santa Cruz da Graciosa Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 'Praia do Norte' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 'Castelo Branco' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 Cedros Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 Horta Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 Ribeirinha Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 Madalena Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 Candelaria Portugal  0.1
07 Oct 2024 23:00 S. Mateus Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 00:00 Cachorro Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Sao Roque do Pico Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 03:00 Prainha de Baixo Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 03:00 Ribeira Grande Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Velas Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Urzelina Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 03:00 Ribeirinha Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 'Norte Grande' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 03:00 Manhenha Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 'Ribeira Seca' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 'Barreiras' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 'Topo' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Serreta Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Santa Barbara Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Biscoitos Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Angra do Heroismo Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Angra Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Feteira Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Vila Nova Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 03:00 'Companhia de Baixo' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 03:00 'Lajes' Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Baia da Vila Portugal  0.1
08 Oct 2024 04:00 Praia da Vitoria Portugal  0.1