Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for MARIO-25 in Mexico from 11 Sep 2025 21:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2025 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIO-25

in Mexico

17 Sep 2025 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIO-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	102 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	102 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	11 Sep 2025 21:00	130	No people	No people	Mexico
2	12 Sep 2025 03:00	130	No people	No people	Mexico
3	12 Sep 2025 09:00	111	No people	No people	Mexico
4	12 Sep 2025 15:00	102	No people	No people	Mexico
5	12 Sep 2025 21:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
6	13 Sep 2025 03:00	56	No people	No people	Mexico
7	13 Sep 2025 06:00	46	No people	No people	Mexico
8	14 Sep 2025 15:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
9	14 Sep 2025 21:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
10	15 Sep 2025 03:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
11	15 Sep 2025 09:00	102	No people	No people	Mexico
12	15 Sep 2025 15:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
13	15 Sep 2025 21:00	102	No people	No people	Mexico
14	16 Sep 2025 03:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
15	16 Sep 2025 09:00	83	No people	No people	Mexico
16	16 Sep 2025 15:00	74	No people	No people	Mexico
17	16 Sep 2025 21:00	56	No people	No people	Mexico
18	17 Sep 2025 03:00	46	No people	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	11 Sep 2025 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.5, -98.8
2	12 Sep 2025 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16, -99.6
3	12 Sep 2025 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	16.5, -100.8
4	12 Sep 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	17.2, -101.9
5	12 Sep 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	17.4, -102.9
6	13 Sep 2025 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.1, -104.6
7	13 Sep 2025 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	18.3, -105.3
8	14 Sep 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.5, -110.2
9	14 Sep 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	18.9, -110.7
10	15 Sep 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	19.2, -111.5
11	15 Sep 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	19.4, -112.3
12	15 Sep 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	20, -113.2
13	15 Sep 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.8, -114.4
14	16 Sep 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	21.5, -115
15	16 Sep 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	21.9, -115.7
16	16 Sep 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	22.7, -117.2
17	16 Sep 2025 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	23, -117.7
18	17 Sep 2025 03:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	23.7, -118.3
18	17 Sep 2025 12:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	24.7, -119.2
18	18 Sep 2025 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	25.6, -119.8
18	18 Sep 2025 12:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	26.3, -120.2

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Socorro		100				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Roca Partido Island		Mexico
Socorro Island		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 12 Sep 2025 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.