Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PRISCILLA-25 in Mexico from 04 Oct 2025 21:00 UTC to 08 Oct 2025 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PRISCILLA-25

in Mexico

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PRISCILLA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (10 Oct 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	167 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	176 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

167 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	04 Oct 2025 21:00	157	90 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	05 Oct 2025 03:00	148	Few people	No people	Mexico
3	05 Oct 2025 09:00	148	No people	No people	Mexico
4	05 Oct 2025 15:00	157	No people	No people	Mexico
5	05 Oct 2025 21:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
6	06 Oct 2025 03:00	167	No people	No people	Mexico
7	06 Oct 2025 09:00	176	No people	No people	Mexico
8	06 Oct 2025 15:00	176	10 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	06 Oct 2025 21:00	167	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	07 Oct 2025 03:00	167	80 thousand	No people	Mexico
11	07 Oct 2025 09:00	176	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
12	07 Oct 2025 15:00	185	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
13	07 Oct 2025 21:00	176	20 thousand	No people	Mexico
14	08 Oct 2025 03:00	167	290 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	04 Oct 2025 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.5, -106.6
2	05 Oct 2025 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -106.7
3	05 Oct 2025 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.1, -106.9
4	05 Oct 2025 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.4, -107.1
5	05 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.4, -107.1
6	06 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	16.7, -107.3
7	06 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17.2, -107.3
8	06 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	3500 people	17.5, -107.4
9	06 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	7400 people	18.3, -108
10	07 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	19.1, -108.5
11	07 Oct 2025 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	19.4, -109.5
12	07 Oct 2025 15:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	19.8, -110.1
13	07 Oct 2025 21:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	19.9, -110.8
14	08 Oct 2025 03:00	Category 2	167	no people	270000 people	20.6, -111.5
14	08 Oct 2025 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	21.4, -112.4
14	09 Oct 2025 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	22.6, -113.7
14	09 Oct 2025 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	23.7, -114.7
14	10 Oct 2025 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	24.9, -115.1
14	10 Oct 2025 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	10000 people	26.3, -115.3
14	11 Oct 2025 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	27.4, -115.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in San Felipe, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Oct 2025 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (43 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 14 of 08 Oct 2025 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Oct 2025 12:00	San Felipe	Mexico	0.3
	10 Oct 2025 12:00	Boca del Melgoita	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 08:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 12:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	El Golfo de Santa Clara	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 13:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 09:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 11:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 04:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 13:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	El Tornillal	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 06:00	Molino	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 12:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	10 Oct 2025 12:00	Estero la Bocana	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 06:00	Molino Lacy	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 12:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 04:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 11:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 13:00	Las Tinajas	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 04:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 11:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	La Choya	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 07:00	Puerto Penasco	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 11:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 13:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 05:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 02:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 13:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 11:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 03:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 04:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 05:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 05:00	Rancho Bahia	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 05:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 12:00	Playa Oceano Pacifico	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 13:00	Bahia Asuncion	Mexico	0.1
	10 Oct 2025 13:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.