Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26 in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China from 01 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC to 05 Jul 2026 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26

in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China

05 Jul 2026 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BAVI-26 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2026-000099-CHN
Exposed countries	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Exposed population	35.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	287 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	287 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	287 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

287 km/h Current Max.

Up to 150000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	01 Jul 2026 00:00	185	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
2	01 Jul 2026 06:00	213	230 thousand	60 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
3	01 Jul 2026 12:00	231	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
4	01 Jul 2026 18:00	241	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
5	02 Jul 2026 00:00	259	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	02 Jul 2026 06:00	250	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	02 Jul 2026 12:00	250	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
8	02 Jul 2026 18:00	269	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
9	03 Jul 2026 00:00	278	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
10	03 Jul 2026 06:00	278	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
11	03 Jul 2026 12:00	269	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
12	03 Jul 2026 18:00	269	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
13	04 Jul 2026 00:00	269	230 thousand	170 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
14	04 Jul 2026 06:00	269	230 thousand	140 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
15	04 Jul 2026 12:00	269	420 thousand	150 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
16	04 Jul 2026 18:00	259	870 thousand	100 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
17	05 Jul 2026 00:00	259	1.2 million	50 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
18	05 Jul 2026 06:00	278	25.3 million	50 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
19	05 Jul 2026 12:00	287	46 million	200 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
20	05 Jul 2026 18:00	287	61.6 million	150 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	01 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	8.7, 163.3
2	01 Jul 2026 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.2, 163
3	01 Jul 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.8, 162.3
4	01 Jul 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.5, 161.4
5	02 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	10.9, 160.2
6	02 Jul 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	11.7, 159
7	02 Jul 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	12.3, 158
8	02 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.6, 156.6
9	03 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	12.7, 155.3
10	03 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	12.9, 154.2
11	03 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	12.8, 153.1
12	03 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	12.7, 152.2
13	04 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	12.5, 151.5
14	04 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	12.5, 150.8
15	04 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	12.7, 150.2
16	04 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	250	no people	200000 people	12.7, 149.6
17	05 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	230000 people	12.9, 148.9
18	05 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	230000 people	13.4, 148.1
19	05 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 5	287	140000 people	230000 people	13.7, 146.9
20	05 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	287	35000 people	230000 people	14, 146.1
20	06 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	230000 people	14.8, 143.8
20	06 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	278	no people	2200 people	15.5, 141.1
20	07 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	278	no people	no people	16, 138.2
20	07 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	16.6, 135.4
20	08 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	17.2, 132.9
20	08 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	18, 130.6
20	09 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	231	110000 people	61.4 million people	20.6, 127.1
20	10 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	24.5, 123.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Northern Mariana Is.	3000 people
Guam	30000 people
Japan	88000 people
Taiwan	<1000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands	3000 people
Guam	Guam	30000 people
Okinawa	Japan	88000 people
Taiwan	Taiwan	<1000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ishigaki	Okinawa	Japan	City	45000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Rota I International	ROP	185	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Dynasty		46				0
West Tinian	TIQ	82	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Andersen AFB	UAM	191				0
Hirara	MMY	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Shimojishima	SHI	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
		9				0
Ishigaki	ISG	26	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Hateruma	HTR	unknown				0
Iriomote Jima		12				0
Yonaguni	OGN	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Rota		Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian		Northern Mariana Islands
Hirara		Japan
Ishigaki		Japan
Ishigaki Island		Japan
Irionote Island		Japan
Suao	TWSUO	Taiwan

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Sokobaru	Sokobaru	Sokobarugawa	1992
Maezato	Maezato	Miyaragawa	1982
Nagura	Nagura	Naguragawa	1996

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 01 Jul 2026 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.