Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26 in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China from 01 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC to 08 Jul 2026 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26

in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China

08 Jul 2026 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BAVI-26 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2026-000099-CHN
Exposed countries	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Exposed population	35.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	287 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability	Medium (China)
Landfall	between 11 Jul 2026 00:00 - 12 Jul 2026 00:00 in China

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	287 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 26.7 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	01 Jul 2026 00:00	185	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
2	01 Jul 2026 06:00	213	230 thousand	60 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
3	01 Jul 2026 12:00	231	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
4	01 Jul 2026 18:00	241	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
5	02 Jul 2026 00:00	259	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	02 Jul 2026 06:00	250	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	02 Jul 2026 12:00	250	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
8	02 Jul 2026 18:00	269	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
9	03 Jul 2026 00:00	278	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
10	03 Jul 2026 06:00	278	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
11	03 Jul 2026 12:00	269	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
12	03 Jul 2026 18:00	269	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
13	04 Jul 2026 00:00	269	230 thousand	170 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
14	04 Jul 2026 06:00	269	230 thousand	140 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
15	04 Jul 2026 12:00	269	420 thousand	150 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
16	04 Jul 2026 18:00	259	870 thousand	100 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
17	05 Jul 2026 00:00	259	1.2 million	50 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
18	05 Jul 2026 06:00	278	25.3 million	50 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
19	05 Jul 2026 12:00	287	46 million	200 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
20	05 Jul 2026 18:00	287	61.6 million	150 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan
21	06 Jul 2026 00:00	278	112.1 million	4.9 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan
22	06 Jul 2026 06:00	204	188.7 million	1.1 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
23	06 Jul 2026 12:00	213	214.3 million	19.1 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
24	06 Jul 2026 18:00	213	283.6 million	29.3 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
25	07 Jul 2026 00:00	167	289.6 million	23.5 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
26	07 Jul 2026 06:00	194	264.3 million	36.2 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
27	07 Jul 2026 12:00	213	296.5 million	36.8 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
28	07 Jul 2026 18:00	194	274.4 million	26.6 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
29	08 Jul 2026 00:00	194	358.5 million	26.7 million	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	01 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	8.7, 163.3
2	01 Jul 2026 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	9.2, 163
3	01 Jul 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.8, 162.3
4	01 Jul 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.5, 161.4
5	02 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	10.9, 160.2
6	02 Jul 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	11.7, 159
7	02 Jul 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	12.3, 158
8	02 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	12.6, 156.6
9	03 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	12.7, 155.3
10	03 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	12.9, 154.2
11	03 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	12.8, 153.1
12	03 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	12.7, 152.2
13	04 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	12.5, 151.5
14	04 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	12.5, 150.8
15	04 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	12.7, 150.2
16	04 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	250	no people	200000 people	12.7, 149.6
17	05 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	230000 people	12.9, 148.9
18	05 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	230000 people	13.4, 148.1
19	05 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 5	287	140000 people	230000 people	13.7, 146.9
20	05 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 5	287	35000 people	230000 people	14, 146.1
21	06 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 5	278	170000 people	230000 people	14.3, 145
22	06 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	230000 people	14.9, 144
23	06 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 5	259	no people	230000 people	15.4, 142.7
24	06 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	250	no people	150000 people	15.9, 141.1
25	07 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	16.2, 139.9
26	07 Jul 2026 06:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	16.5, 138.4
27	07 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	16.8, 136.7
28	07 Jul 2026 18:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	16.8, 135.3
29	08 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	16.9, 134.1
29	08 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	17.3, 132
29	09 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	18.2, 130.1
29	09 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	110000 people	19.4, 128.5
29	10 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	20.9 million people	20.9, 127
29	10 Jul 2026 12:00	Category 4	213	460000 people	60.9 million people	22.7, 125.2
29	11 Jul 2026 00:00	Category 3	194	26.5 million people	275.5 million people	24.7, 123.2
29	12 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	316.2 million people	29, 118.9	China
29	13 Jul 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	32.5, 116.7	China

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Guam	160000 people
Japan	95000 people
Northern Mariana Is.	3000 people
Taiwan	9.5 million people
China	15.5 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Guam	Guam	160000 people
Okinawa	Japan	95000 people
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands	3000 people
Taiwan	Taiwan	9.5 million people
Fujian	China	1.3 million people
Zhejiang	China	14.2 million people
Jiangxi	China	<1000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Hagåtña		Guam	Capital	1000 people
Ishigaki	Okinawa	Japan	City	45000 people
Nan-ao	I-lan	Taiwan	City	-
Su-ao	I-lan	Taiwan	City	-
I-lan	I-lan	Taiwan	Major city	-
Tou-cheng	I-lan	Taiwan	City	-
Chi-lung	Chi-lung Shih	Taiwan	City	400000 people
Hsin-tien	T'ai-pei Chuan-Shih	Taiwan	City	-
Taipei	T'ai-pei Chuan-Shih	Taiwan	Capital	2.5 million people
Pan-ch'iao	T'ai-pei	Taiwan	Major city	-
Tan-shui	T'ai-pei Chuan-Shih	Taiwan	City	-
San-chih	T'ai-pei	Taiwan	City	-
Tao-yüan	T'ao-yuan	Taiwan	Major city	-
Songcheng	Fujian	China	City	-
Qiancang	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Yuecheng	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Ruian	Zhejiang	China	City	120000 people
Tongshan	Fujian	China	City	62000 people
Wenzhou	Zhejiang	China	City	860000 people
Shanmen	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Tengqiao	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Qiaoxiajie	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Hanyang	Fujian	China	City	70000 people
Daxue	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Fenglin	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Hecheng	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Luoyang	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Aoyang	Fujian	China	City	-
Shawan	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Wuyun	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Dagangtou	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Xinbi	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Anren	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Xiping	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Liucheng	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Longquan	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Lutan	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Miaogao	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Lanxi	Zhejiang	China	City	73000 people
Huzhen	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Youba	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Longyou	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Shouchang	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Changshan	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Huabu	Zhejiang	China	City	-
Kaihua	Zhejiang	China	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
A.B. Won Pat International	GUM	91				0
Andersen AFB	UAM	191				0
Rota I International	ROP	185	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
West Tinian	TIQ	82	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Dynasty		46				0
Hirara	MMY	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6500
Shimojishima	SHI	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
		9				0
Ishigaki	ISG	26	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Hateruma	HTR	unknown				0
Iriomote Jima		12				0
Yonaguni	OGN	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
		9				0
Sungshan	TSA	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8500
Pa Kuei		141				0
Taoyuan		45	Mil.	Paved	No	10000
Chiang Kai Shek International	TPE	33	Civ.	Paved	Yes	12000
Wenzhou	WNZ	4				0
Long You		60				0
Quxian		58				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Apra Harbor		Guam
Apra (Agana)	GUAPR	Guam
Rota		Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian		Northern Mariana Islands
Hirara		Japan
Ishigaki		Japan
Ishigaki Island		Japan
Irionote Island		Japan
Suao	TWSUO	Taiwan
Keelung (Chilung)	TWKEL	Taiwan
Tan Shui		Taiwan
Ning Te		China
Ku Ao Tou		China
Jui An		China
Wenzhou	CNWNZ	China

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Sokobaru	Sokobaru	Sokobarugawa	1992
Maezato	Maezato	Miyaragawa	1982
Nagura	Nagura	Naguragawa	1996
	Wujiayuan	Zaoxi	1962
	Qiaodun	Ao Jiang	1973
	Baishi	Baishixi	1958
	Zhongqian	Baishixi	1960
	Nanxi	Nanxi	1981
	Shanxi	Feiyun	2001
	Baizhanggji	Feiyun Jiang	1960
	Tankeng	Xiaoxi	2008
	Jinkeng		n/a
	Shitang	Ou Jiang	n/a
	Jinshuitan	Longquanxi	1989
	Qingxikou	Trib. Wuyi Jiang	n/a
	Yuankou	Wuyi Jiang	n/a
	Andi	Wuyi Jiang	1965
	Chengping 2		n/a
	Chengping 1		n/a
	Jinlan	Baishaxi	1960
	Xinfan	Trib. Fuchun Jiang	n/a
	Gaochao	Trib. Qu Jiang	n/a
	Muceng	Lingshangang	2009
	Hunanzhen	Wuxi Jiang	1985
	Jinshantou	Trib. Qu Jiang	n/a
	Huolushan	Trib. Qu Jiang	n/a
	Huangtankou	Lan Jiang	1958
	Tongshanyuan	Lan Jiang	1974

Nuclear Facilities

Site Name	Type	Name	Country
Site-Kuosheng	Nuclear Power Reactor	Kuosheng-1	Taiwan
Site-Kuosheng	Nuclear Power Reactor	Kuosheng-2	Taiwan
Site-Shimen Xiang	Nuclear Power Reactor	Chinshan-1	Taiwan
Site-Shimen Xiang	Nuclear Power Reactor	Chinshan-2	Taiwan
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-3	China
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-4	China
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-1	China
Site-Beiwan	Nuclear Power Reactor	Nindge-2	China

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 01 Jul 2026 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level

Date (UTC)

Name

Country

Storm surge height (m)

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.