Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26
in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BAVI-26 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2026-000099-CHN
Exposed countries Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Exposed population 35.3 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (China)
Landfall between
11 Jul 2026 06:00 - 11 Jul 2026 18:00

in China

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 148 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 287 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 63 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Level Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 01 Jul 2026 00:00 185 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 2 01 Jul 2026 06:00 213 230 thousand 60 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 3 01 Jul 2026 12:00 231 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 4 01 Jul 2026 18:00 241 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 5 02 Jul 2026 00:00 259 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 6 02 Jul 2026 06:00 250 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 7 02 Jul 2026 12:00 250 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 8 02 Jul 2026 18:00 269 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Red 9 03 Jul 2026 00:00 278 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 03 Jul 2026 06:00 278 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 11 03 Jul 2026 12:00 269 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 12 03 Jul 2026 18:00 269 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 13 04 Jul 2026 00:00 269 230 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 14 04 Jul 2026 06:00 269 230 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 15 04 Jul 2026 12:00 269 420 thousand 150 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 16 04 Jul 2026 18:00 259 870 thousand 100 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 17 05 Jul 2026 00:00 259 1.2 million 50 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 18 05 Jul 2026 06:00 278 25.3 million 50 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 19 05 Jul 2026 12:00 287 46 million 200 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Red 20 05 Jul 2026 18:00 287 61.6 million 150 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan
Red 21 06 Jul 2026 00:00 278 112.1 million 4.9 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan
Orange 22 06 Jul 2026 06:00 204 188.7 million 1.1 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 23 06 Jul 2026 12:00 213 214.3 million 19.1 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 24 06 Jul 2026 18:00 213 283.6 million 29.3 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 25 07 Jul 2026 00:00 167 289.6 million 23.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 26 07 Jul 2026 06:00 194 264.3 million 36.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Red 27 07 Jul 2026 12:00 213 296.5 million 36.8 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Red 28 07 Jul 2026 18:00 194 274.4 million 26.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Red 29 08 Jul 2026 00:00 194 358.5 million 26.7 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Red 30 08 Jul 2026 06:00 213 196.9 million 30 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Red 31 08 Jul 2026 12:00 204 288.3 million 43.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 32 08 Jul 2026 18:00 185 236.1 million 44.1 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 33 09 Jul 2026 00:00 176 354 million 38.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 34 09 Jul 2026 06:00 185 394.6 million 38.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 35 09 Jul 2026 12:00 167 436.7 million 29.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 36 09 Jul 2026 18:00 157 329.7 million 47.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 37 10 Jul 2026 00:00 139 391.3 million 36.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 38 10 Jul 2026 06:00 139 467.5 million 53 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 39 10 Jul 2026 12:00 148 359.3 million 35.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 40 10 Jul 2026 18:00 157 379.9 million 42.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 41 11 Jul 2026 00:00 148 424.9 million 55.9 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China
Orange 42 11 Jul 2026 06:00 148 326.6 million 63 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China

Bulletin Timeline

Level Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 01 Jul 2026 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 8.7, 163.3
GREEN
2 01 Jul 2026 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9.2, 163
GREEN
3 01 Jul 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9.8, 162.3
GREEN
4 01 Jul 2026 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 10.5, 161.4
GREEN
5 02 Jul 2026 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 10.9, 160.2
GREEN
6 02 Jul 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 11.7, 159
GREEN
7 02 Jul 2026 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 12.3, 158
GREEN
8 02 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 12.6, 156.6
GREEN
9 03 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 12.7, 155.3
GREEN
10 03 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 12.9, 154.2
GREEN
11 03 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 12.8, 153.1
GREEN
12 03 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 12.7, 152.2
GREEN
13 04 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 12.5, 151.5
GREEN
14 04 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 12.5, 150.8
GREEN
15 04 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 12.7, 150.2
GREEN
16 04 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 4 250 no people 200000 people 12.7, 149.6
GREEN
17 05 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 4 250 no people 230000 people 12.9, 148.9
GREEN
18 05 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 5 269 no people 230000 people 13.4, 148.1
RED
19 05 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 5 287 140000 people 230000 people 13.7, 146.9
RED
20 05 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 5 287 35000 people 230000 people 14, 146.1
RED
21 06 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 5 278 170000 people 230000 people 14.3, 145
GREEN
22 06 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 5 269 no people 230000 people 14.9, 144
GREEN
23 06 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 5 259 no people 230000 people 15.4, 142.7
GREEN
24 06 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 4 250 no people 150000 people 15.9, 141.1
GREEN
25 07 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 16.2, 139.9
GREEN
26 07 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 16.5, 138.4
GREEN
27 07 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.8, 136.7
GREEN
28 07 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 16.8, 135.3
GREEN
29 08 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 16.9, 134.1
GREEN
30 08 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 16.9, 133
GREEN
31 08 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 17.3, 131.8
GREEN
32 08 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 17.6, 130.8
GREEN
33 09 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 18.3, 129.9
GREEN
34 09 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 18.7, 129
GREEN
35 09 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 3 185 no people 110000 people 19.2, 128.8
GREEN
36 09 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 2 167 no people 1.5 million people 20.1, 128.2
GREEN
37 10 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 1 139 26000 people 25.5 million people 20.8, 127.3
GREEN
38 10 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 1 139 110000 people 36.8 million people 21.9, 126.9
GREEN
39 10 Jul 2026 12:00 Category 1 148 120000 people 63.3 million people 22.7, 126
GREEN
40 10 Jul 2026 18:00 Category 2 157 1.2 million people 102.9 million people 23.8, 125.2
ORANGE
41 11 Jul 2026 00:00 Category 1 148 12.1 million people 220.3 million people 25, 124.6
ORANGE
42 11 Jul 2026 06:00 Category 1 148 62.2 million people 274.2 million people 26.6, 123.2
GREEN
42 11 Jul 2026 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 293.5 million people 28.9, 120.8 China
GREEN
42 12 Jul 2026 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 252.9 million people 30.9, 119 China
GREEN
42 12 Jul 2026 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 32.6, 118.1 China
GREEN
42 13 Jul 2026 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 34, 118.2 China
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Taiwan 8.9 million people
China 50.2 million people
Japan 100000 people
Northern Mariana Is. 3000 people
Guam 160000 people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Taiwan Taiwan 8.9 million people
Zhejiang China 49.3 million people
Okinawa Japan 100000 people
Fujian China 880000 people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 3000 people
Guam Guam 160000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Chi-lung Chi-lung Shih Taiwan City 400000 people
San-chih T'ai-pei Taiwan City -
Tan-shui T'ai-pei Chuan-Shih Taiwan City -
Tou-cheng I-lan Taiwan City -
Taipei T'ai-pei Chuan-Shih Taiwan Capital 2.5 million people
Hsin-tien T'ai-pei Chuan-Shih Taiwan City -
Songmen Zhejiang China City -
I-lan I-lan Taiwan Major city -
Pan-ch'iao T'ai-pei Taiwan Major city -
Su-ao I-lan Taiwan City -
Chumen Zhejiang China City -
Tao-yüan T'ao-yuan Taiwan Major city -
Wenling Zhejiang China City 67000 people
Ishigaki Okinawa Japan City 45000 people
Xinhe Zhejiang China City -
Nan-ao I-lan Taiwan City -
Qingjiang Zhejiang China City -
Zeguo Zhejiang China City -
Yuecheng Zhejiang China City -
Dajing Zhejiang China City -
Ruian Zhejiang China City 120000 people
Jiaojiang Zhejiang China City 470000 people
Qiancang Zhejiang China City -
Qiansuo Zhejiang China City -
Taozhu Zhejiang China City -
Wenzhou Zhejiang China City 860000 people
Huangyan Zhejiang China City 150000 people
Lipu Zhejiang China City -
Huaqiao Zhejiang China City -
Tongshan Fujian China City 62000 people
Ningxi Zhejiang China City -
Tengqiao Zhejiang China City -
Qiaoxiajie Zhejiang China City -
Shanmen Zhejiang China City -
Zhangxi Zhejiang China City -
Songcheng Fujian China City -
Lin-hai Zhejiang China City -
Fenglin Zhejiang China City -
Liangtoumen Zhejiang China City -
Dahu Zhejiang China City -
Zhangjiadu Zhejiang China City -
Daxue Zhejiang China City -
Hecheng Zhejiang China City -
Lingjing Zhejiang China City -
Dancheng Zhejiang China City -
Ninghai Zhejiang China City 67000 people
Xianju Zhejiang China City 61000 people
Xizhou Zhejiang China City -
Potan Zhejiang China City -
Tiantai Zhejiang China City -
Zhuxi Zhejiang China City -
Fuxi Zhejiang China City -
Luoyang Zhejiang China City -
Huzhen Zhejiang China City -
Aoyang Fujian China City -
Wuyun Zhejiang China City -
Xinbi Zhejiang China City -
Dagangtou Zhejiang China City -
Xinchang Zhejiang China City -
Shawan Zhejiang China City -
Zhenhai Zhejiang China City 62000 people
Ningbo Zhejiang China City 720000 people
Hengdian Zhejiang China City -
Guli Zhejiang China City -
Shengxian Zhejiang China City -
Cicheng Zhejiang China City -
Anren Zhejiang China City -
Wuning Zhejiang China City 130000 people
Xiping Zhejiang China City -
Liucheng Zhejiang China City -
Lutan Zhejiang China City -
Fenghui Zhejiang China City -
Yuyao Zhejiang China City 110000 people
Guancheng Zhejiang China City -
Longquan Zhejiang China City -
Tangya Zhejiang China City -
Kanxi Zhejiang China City -
Jinhua Zhejiang China Major city 140000 people
Miaogao Zhejiang China City -
Paitou Zhejiang China City -
Songxia Zhejiang China City -
Zhuji Zhejiang China City 110000 people
Puyang Zhejiang China City -
Shaoxing Zhejiang China City 420000 people
Diankou Zhejiang China City -
Lanxi Zhejiang China City 73000 people
Maan Zhejiang China City -
Youba Zhejiang China City -
Huzhen Zhejiang China City -
Qianqing Zhejiang China City -
Huangwan Zhejiang China City -
Longyou Zhejiang China City -
Toupeng Zhejiang China City -
Meicheng Zhejiang China City -
Zhapu Zhejiang China City -
Wuyuan Zhejiang China City -
Zhaixi Zhejiang China City -
Shouchang Zhejiang China City -
Tonglu Zhejiang China City -
Fuyang Zhejiang China City 70000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Sungshan TSA 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8500
Yonaguni OGN 21 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
9 0
Chiang Kai Shek International TPE 33 Civ. Paved Yes 12000
Taoyuan 45 Mil. Paved No 10000
Pa Kuei 141 0
9 0
Iriomote Jima 12 0
Ishigaki ISG 26 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Wenzhou WNZ 4 0
Shimojishima SHI 16 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Luqiaq HYN 9 0
Hateruma HTR unknown 0
Hirara MMY 45 Civ. Paved Yes 6500
Kumejima UEO 7 Civ. Paved Yes 6500
Zhujia Jian Af P HSN 29999 0
Ningbo (Lishe) NGB 4 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
11 0
Yiwu YIW 56 0
44 0
Long You 60 0
Xiaoshan HGH 7 Civ. Paved Yes 10400
Quxian 58 0
Hangzhou 15 0
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Dynasty 46 0
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Keelung (Chilung) TWKEL Taiwan
Tan Shui Taiwan
Kan Men Chiang China
Ishigaki Island Japan
Irionote Island Japan
Suao TWSUO Taiwan
Ishigaki Japan
Ku Ao Tou China
Jui An China
Hirara Japan
Haimen CNHME China
Wenzhou CNWNZ China
Myako Island Japan
Shihpu China
Ning Hai China
Kume Island Japan
Beilun China
Zhoushan CNZOS China
Ningbo CNNGB China
Chen Hai China
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands
Apra Harbor Guam
Rota Northern Mariana Islands
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Nagura Nagura Naguragawa 1996
Maezato Maezato Miyaragawa 1982
Sokobaru Sokobaru Sokobarugawa 1992
Human Trib. Jiao Jiang n/a
Taihu Trib. Jiao Jiang 1962
Baishi Baishixi 1958
Zhongqian Baishixi 1960
Wujiayuan Zaoxi 1962
Fuxi Dajinxi 1979
Xikou Trib. Jiao Jiang n/a
Qiaodun Ao Jiang 1973
Changtan Huangyanxi 1961
Niutoushan Nixi 1989
Nanxi Nanxi 1981
Shanxi Feiyun 2001
Baizhanggji Feiyun Jiang 1960
Baixi Baixi 2001
Tankeng Xiaoxi 2008
Jinkeng n/a
Lishimen Shifengxi 1978
Qiaoying Trib. Caoe Jiang 1989
Hengshan Xian Jiang 1966
Hengxi Yong Jiang 1978
Wuzhangyan Caoe Jiang n/a
Changzhao Xingzhang Jiang 1979
Qincun Huang 2012
Tingxia Yong Jiang 1985
Nanjiang Nan Jiang 1995
Yangxi Wuyi Jiang n/a
Shitang Ou Jiang n/a
Hengjin Dongyang Jiang 1964
Taiping Wuyi Jiang n/a
Jinshuitan Longquanxi 1989
Nanshan Trib. Caoe Jiang 1973
Jiaokou Fenghua Jiang 1975
Qingxikou Trib. Wuyi Jiang n/a
Sanduxi Trib. Yongkang Jiang n/a
Dongfanghong Trib. Dongyang Jiang n/a
Baifeng Dongyang Jiang n/a
Shibi Puyang Jiang 1992
Yuankou Wuyi Jiang n/a
Chengcai Puyang Jiang 1973
Qiaoxi Trib. Puyang Jiang n/a
Tangpuxi Xiaoshunjiang 2000
Changyan Trib. Dongyang Jiang n/a
Andi Wuyi Jiang 1965
Yankou Trib. Fuchun Jiang n/a
Chengping 2 n/a
Chengping 1 n/a
Chengtou Trib. Lan Jiang n/a
Jinlan Baishaxi 1960
Tongjiqiao Puyang Jiang n/a
Jinkengling Puyang Jiang n/a
Xinfan Trib. Fuchun Jiang n/a
Gaochao Trib. Qu Jiang n/a
Muceng Lingshangang 2009
Jinshantou Trib. Qu Jiang n/a
Huolushan Trib. Qu Jiang n/a
Zhiyan Trib. Fuchun Jiang n/a
Hunanzhen Wuxi Jiang 1985
Fuchunjiang Fuchun Jiang 1968
Huangtankou Lan Jiang 1958
Tongshanyuan Lan Jiang 1974
Xinan Jiang Xinan Jiang 1960
Yanshiling Trib. Fuchun Jiang n/a
Qingshan Fenshui Jiang 1998
Fenshui Jiang Fenshui 2005

Nuclear Facilities

Site Name Type Name Country
Site-Shimen Xiang Nuclear Power Reactor Chinshan-1 Taiwan
Site-Shimen Xiang Nuclear Power Reactor Chinshan-2 Taiwan
Site-Kuosheng Nuclear Power Reactor Kuosheng-2 Taiwan
Site-Kuosheng Nuclear Power Reactor Kuosheng-1 Taiwan
Site-Beiwan Nuclear Power Reactor Nindge-4 China
Site-Beiwan Nuclear Power Reactor Nindge-1 China
Site-Beiwan Nuclear Power Reactor Nindge-2 China
Site-Beiwan Nuclear Power Reactor Nindge-3 China
Site-Taizhou Nuclear Power Reactor Sanmen-2 China
Site-Taizhou Nuclear Power Reactor Sanmen-1 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Qinshan II-2 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Qinshan III-1 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Qinshan-1 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Qinshan III-2 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Qinshan II-3 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Qinshan II-1 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Qinshan II-4 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Fangjiashan-1 China
Site-Jiaxing Nuclear Power Reactor Fangjiashan-2 China

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 01 Jul 2026 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)