Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 02 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

02 Sep 2026 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	231 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (28 Aug 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	241 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	231 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

241 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher
1	27 Aug 2026 21:00	167	No people	No people
2	28 Aug 2026 03:00	185	No people	No people
3	28 Aug 2026 09:00	204	No people	No people
4	28 Aug 2026 15:00	204	No people	No people
5	28 Aug 2026 21:00	204	No people	No people
6	29 Aug 2026 03:00	204	No people	No people
7	29 Aug 2026 09:00	185	No people	No people
8	29 Aug 2026 15:00	185	No people	No people
9	29 Aug 2026 21:00	185	No people	No people
10	30 Aug 2026 03:00	185	No people	No people
11	30 Aug 2026 09:00	194	No people	No people
12	30 Aug 2026 15:00	194	No people	No people
13	30 Aug 2026 21:00	204	No people	No people
14	31 Aug 2026 00:00	222	No people	No people
15	31 Aug 2026 03:00	231	No people	No people
16	31 Aug 2026 09:00	241	No people	No people
17	31 Aug 2026 15:00	222	No people	No people
18	31 Aug 2026 21:00	213	No people	No people
19	01 Sep 2026 03:00	213	No people	No people
20	01 Sep 2026 09:00	222	No people	No people
21	01 Sep 2026 15:00	222	No people	No people
22	01 Sep 2026 21:00	213	No people	No people
23	02 Sep 2026 03:00	231	No people	No people
24	02 Sep 2026 09:00	241	No people	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	27 Aug 2026 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	11.1, -111.9
2	28 Aug 2026 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	11.9, -112.7
3	28 Aug 2026 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	12.7, -114.3
4	28 Aug 2026 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.2, -115
5	28 Aug 2026 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	13.7, -115.5
6	29 Aug 2026 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.2, -116.3
7	29 Aug 2026 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.7, -117
8	29 Aug 2026 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	15.6, -117.6
9	29 Aug 2026 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	16.4, -118.8
10	30 Aug 2026 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	17, -120.2
11	30 Aug 2026 09:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	17.3, -121.1
12	30 Aug 2026 15:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	17.3, -122.1
13	30 Aug 2026 21:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	17.2, -123.2
14	31 Aug 2026 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	17.2, -123.4
15	31 Aug 2026 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	17.1, -123.8
16	31 Aug 2026 09:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	17.2, -124.4
17	31 Aug 2026 15:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	17.4, -125.1
18	31 Aug 2026 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	17.5, -125.8
19	01 Sep 2026 03:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	17.8, -126.6
20	01 Sep 2026 09:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18, -127.9
21	01 Sep 2026 15:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18.1, -129
22	01 Sep 2026 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	18.2, -129.9
23	02 Sep 2026 03:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	18.3, -130.8
24	02 Sep 2026 09:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	18.5, -131.7
24	02 Sep 2026 18:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	19, -133.1
24	03 Sep 2026 06:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	19.5, -135
24	03 Sep 2026 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	19.9, -137
24	04 Sep 2026 06:00	Category 2	176	no people	no people	20.4, -139
24	04 Sep 2026 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	20.8, -140.8
24	05 Sep 2026 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	21.4, -142.3
24	06 Sep 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	22.9, -144.8
24	07 Sep 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	25.2, -147.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Bahia Kino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2026 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (4 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 31 Aug 2026 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Aug 2026 04:00	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 03:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2026 01:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.