Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for HARUNA-13
in Madagascar
25 Feb 2013 00 UTC
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  • JRC
Impact Single TC
    Impact based on all weather systems in the area

    Impact

      Tropical Cyclone HARUNA-13 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

      Meteorological source GDACS
      Exposed countries Madagascar
      Exposed population 790 thousand in Category 1 or higher
      Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
      Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (22 Feb 02:00 UTC)
      Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

      GDACS Score

      GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
      For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
        Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
      Current 64 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5
      Overall 185 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

      Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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      Wind

        64 km/h Current Max.

        Up to 2.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

        Impact Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
          Tropical Storm or higher          		 Population in
          Cat 1. or higher          		 Countries
          Green 1 19 Feb 2013 00:00 121 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 2 19 Feb 2013 12:00 93 No people No people Madagascar
          Green 3 20 Feb 2013 00:00 138 No people 20 thousand Madagascar
          Orange 4 20 Feb 2013 12:00 158 No people 260 thousand Madagascar
          Red 5 21 Feb 2013 00:00 185 No people 630 thousand Madagascar
          Red 6 21 Feb 2013 12:00 185 No people 1 million Madagascar
          Orange 7 22 Feb 2013 00:00 167 No people 580 thousand Madagascar
          Orange 8 22 Feb 2013 12:00 148 No people 1 million
          Green 9 23 Feb 2013 00:00 111 No people 790 thousand Madagascar
          Green 10 23 Feb 2013 12:00 84 No people 790 thousand
          Green 11 24 Feb 2013 00:00 84 No people 790 thousand
          Green 12 24 Feb 2013 12:00 74 No people 790 thousand
          Green 13 25 Feb 2013 00:00 64 No people 790 thousand

          Bulletin Timeline

            Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
            (SSHS)             		Max winds
            (km/h)             		Population in
            Cat.1 or higher             		Population in
            Tropical Storm
            or higher             		Location (lat, lon) Countries
            green
            		 1 2/19/2013 Tropical storm 64 no people no people -20, 41.2
            green
            		 2 2/19/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 64 no people no people -21.3, 40.8
            green
            		 3 2/20/2013 Tropical storm 101 no people no people -21.4, 40.7
            green
            		 4 2/20/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 1 130 no people no people -22.1, 40.7
            green
            		 5 2/21/2013 Category 2 175 no people 25000 people -22.5, 41.4 Madagascar
            green
            		 6 2/21/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 3 185 15000 people 500000 people -22.3, 41.9 Madagascar
            orange
            		 7 2/22/2013 Category 2 167 370000 people 880000 people -22.2, 43 Madagascar
            orange
            		 8 2/22/2013 12:00:00 PM Category 1 148 700000 people 2.4 million people -23, 43.9 Madagascar
            green
            		 9 2/23/2013 Tropical storm 111 no people 1.4 million people -24.3, 46.3 Madagascar
            green
            		 10 2/23/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 84 no people no people -25.4, 48.6
            green
            		 11 2/24/2013 Tropical storm 84 no people no people -26.2, 51
            green
            		 12 2/24/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical storm 74 no people no people -27.2, 54.1
            green
            		 13 2/25/2013 Tropical storm 64 no people no people -27, 57.5
            green
            		 13 2/25/2013 12:00:00 PM Tropical depression 56 no people no people -26.6, 59.4
            **
            Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO
            Actual track of the current bulletin
            The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
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            Exposed population - AoIs

            Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

            Provinces

            Country Region Province
            Madagascar Fianarantsoa
            Madagascar Toliara

            Populated places

            Name Region Province Country City class Population
            Tulear Toliara Madagascar Major city -
            Betroka Toliara Madagascar City -
            Ankazoabo Toliara Madagascar City 26000 people
            Ambohibe Toliara Madagascar City -
            Tolanaro Madagascar City -
            Morombe Toliara Madagascar City -

            Critical infrastructure

            Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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            Rainfall

            Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

            ...

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            StormSurge

            0.8 m

            The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Befandeva, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2013 02:00 UTC .

            The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

            Locations affected by Storm surge (69 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 24 Feb 2013 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

            Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
            22 Feb 2013 02:00 Befandeva Madagascar  0.8
            22 Feb 2013 02:00 Andalambezo Madagascar  0.7
            22 Feb 2013 05:00 Ambatomilo Madagascar  0.7
            22 Feb 2013 04:00 Ambohitrabo Madagascar  0.7
            22 Feb 2013 06:00 Salary Madagascar  0.7
            22 Feb 2013 05:00 Bekodoy Madagascar  0.5
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Andavadoaka Madagascar  0.5
            22 Feb 2013 11:00 Manombo Madagascar  0.5
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Morombe Madagascar  0.4
            22 Feb 2013 07:00 Tsiandamba Madagascar  0.4
            22 Feb 2013 09:00 Tsifota Madagascar  0.4
            22 Feb 2013 02:00 Anadramy Nord Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 02:00 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 02:00 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 02:00 Mangolovolo Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 02:00 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 14:00 Tulear Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 13:00 Antseranambe Madagascar  0.3
            22 Feb 2013 12:00 Belalanda Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 04:00 Amberio Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 04:00 Tolanaro Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Antanandava Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Maroloha Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 04:00 Belay Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 02:00 Sainte-Luce Madagascar  0.2
            20 Feb 2013 12:00 Build v7.1 2008-03-26 Europa Island  0.2
            20 Feb 2013 12:00 Warren Point Europa Island  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Ankilihago Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Elanja Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 04:00 Analapetsa Madagascar  0.2
            23 Feb 2013 04:00 Mitriaky Madagascar  0.2
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Belo-sur-Mer Madagascar  0.2
            22 Feb 2013 15:00 Ankilimivony Madagascar  0.2
            22 Feb 2013 11:00 Ambolomailaka Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Esanta Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 06:00 Marokoky Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 10:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Mite Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Manahy Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 01:00 Ankelifolo Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 10:00 Antsotso Avaratra Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 04:00 Ampasimpolaka Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 10:00 Vatomirindry Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 10:00 Ambanihazo Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 11:00 Ankaramanihy Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 12:00 Ankilibe Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 12:00 Esama Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 12:00 Manantenina Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 15:00 Anakao Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 00:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 13:00 Soalara Madagascar  0.1
            22 Feb 2013 13:00 Saint Augustin Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 01:00 Talaky Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 01:00 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 03:00 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 05:00 Befasy Madagascar  0.1
            23 Feb 2013 13:00 Akondro Madagascar  0.1