Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARCIA-15
in Australia
20 Feb 2015 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MARCIA-15 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia
    Exposed population 90 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 204 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (20 Feb 07:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Low (Australia)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 138 km/h 2.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 204 km/h 2.1 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 18 Feb 2015 00:00 84 No people No people Australia
        Green 2 18 Feb 2015 12:00 93 No people No people Australia
        Green 3 19 Feb 2015 00:00 121 1 thousand No people Australia
        Green 4 19 Feb 2015 06:00 204 No people 30 thousand Australia
        Green 5 19 Feb 2015 18:00 204 No people 140 thousand Australia
        Green 6 20 Feb 2015 06:00 138 No people 90 thousand

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 18 Feb 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -16.5, 155.9
          GREEN
          		 2 18 Feb 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18, 154.6
          GREEN
          		 3 19 Feb 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 1500 people -19.9, 152 Australia
          GREEN
          		 4 19 Feb 2015 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -20.6, 150.8
          GREEN
          		 5 19 Feb 2015 18:00 Category 3 204 no people no people -21.7, 150.5
          GREEN
          		 6 20 Feb 2015 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -23.8, 150.6
          GREEN
          		 6 20 Feb 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -25.4, 151.4
          GREEN
          		 6 21 Feb 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -26.9, 152.7
          GREEN
          		 6 21 Feb 2015 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -28.1, 154.2
          GREEN
          		 6 22 Feb 2015 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -28.6, 155.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          2.1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  2.1m in Port Alma, Australia. This height is estimated for 20 Feb 2015 07:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (82 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 19 Feb 2015 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Port Alma Australia  2.1
          20 Feb 2015 05:00 Emu Park Australia  1.4
          20 Feb 2015 05:00 Yeppoon Australia  1.4
          20 Feb 2015 04:00 Keppel Sands Australia  1.3
          20 Feb 2015 04:00 Farnborough Australia  1.0
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Parsons Point Australia  0.7
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Southend Australia  0.6
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Beecher Australia  0.5
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Gladstone Australia  0.5
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Toolooa Australia  0.5
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Benaraby Australia  0.5
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Boyne Island Australia  0.5
          20 Feb 2015 06:00 Targinie Australia  0.4
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Etowri Australia  0.4
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Nindaroo Australia  0.4
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Bucasia Australia  0.4
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Eimeo Australia  0.4
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Andergrove Australia  0.4
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Blacks Beach Australia  0.4
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Te Kowai Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Carmila Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Slade Point Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Amhurst Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 North Mackay Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Cremorne Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Glenella Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Mackay Australia  0.3
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Bustard Head Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Hay Point Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Bakers Creek Australia  0.3
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Rosella Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Chelona Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Alligator Creek Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 07:00 Seventeen Seventy Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 11:00 Moore Park Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 11:00 Fairymead Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 11:00 Port Bundaberg Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 09:00 Maroochydore Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 09:00 Mooloolaba Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 17:00 Banana Pocket Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 17:00 Lethebrook Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 17:00 Midgeton Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 16:00 Seaforth Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 16:00 Cannonvale Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 16:00 Airlie Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 16:00 The Grange Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 16:00 Buxton Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 16:00 Woodgate Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 16:00 Burrum Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 16:00 Traviston Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 12:00 Bellara Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 12:00 Bongaree Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 18:00 Yumbabullo Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 11:00 Burnett Heads Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 18:00 Inveroona Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 18:00 Queens Beach Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 18:00 Bowen Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 09:00 Elliott Heads Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 09:00 Coolum Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 09:00 Coolum Beach Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 11:00 Bribie Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 11:00 Caloundra Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Taffy Islet Australia  0.2
          20 Feb 2015 09:00 Pemberton Australia  0.2
          21 Feb 2015 11:00 Noosaville Australia  0.2
          19 Feb 2015 17:00 Merinda Australia  0.1
          19 Feb 2015 17:00 Delta Australia  0.1
          19 Feb 2015 17:00 Bootooloo Australia  0.1
          20 Feb 2015 09:00 Bargara Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 13:00 Bulwer Australia  0.1
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Elalie Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 12:00 Woorim Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 14:00 Cowan Cowan Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 14:00 Tangalooma Australia  0.1
          19 Feb 2015 19:00 Alva Australia  0.1
          19 Feb 2015 15:00 Clairview Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 09:00 Tewantin Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 09:00 Noosa Heads Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 11:00 Bribie View Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 11:00 Donnybrook Australia  0.1
          21 Feb 2015 11:00 Toorbul Australia  0.1