Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NOUL-15
in Japan, Philippines

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NOUL-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Philippines
Exposed population 430 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 259 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (10 May 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Japan)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 259 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 259 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

259 km/h Current

Up to 1.5 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 03 May 2015 00:00 148 No people No people
Green 2 03 May 2015 06:00 204 No people No people
Green 3 03 May 2015 12:00 212 No people No people
Green 4 03 May 2015 18:00 212 No people No people
Green 5 04 May 2015 00:00 204 No people No people
Green 6 04 May 2015 06:00 212 No people No people
Green 7 04 May 2015 12:00 212 220 thousand No people Philippines
Green 8 04 May 2015 18:00 212 120 thousand No people Philippines
Green 9 05 May 2015 00:00 212 2.5 million No people Philippines
Green 10 05 May 2015 06:00 232 3 million No people Philippines
Green 11 05 May 2015 12:00 222 2.7 million No people Philippines
Green 12 05 May 2015 18:00 222 270 thousand No people Philippines
Green 13 06 May 2015 00:00 222 410 thousand No people Philippines
Green 14 06 May 2015 06:00 232 4.7 million 30 thousand Philippines
Red 15 06 May 2015 12:00 232 11.1 million 1.5 million Philippines
Red 16 06 May 2015 18:00 212 27.2 million 2.7 million Philippines
Red 17 07 May 2015 00:00 212 41.8 million 3.7 million Philippines
Red 18 07 May 2015 06:00 204 15.6 million 3.4 million Philippines
Red 19 07 May 2015 12:00 212 13 million 2.9 million Philippines
Red 20 07 May 2015 18:00 212 12 million 320 thousand Philippines
Red 21 08 May 2015 00:00 204 8.8 million 130 thousand Philippines
Red 22 08 May 2015 06:00 222 10.1 million 1.2 million Philippines
Red 23 08 May 2015 12:00 204 12 million 2.1 million Japan, Philippines
Red 24 08 May 2015 18:00 222 9.8 million 2.7 million Japan, Philippines
Red 25 09 May 2015 00:00 195 13.3 million 3.3 million Japan, Philippines
Red 26 09 May 2015 06:00 212 12.4 million 1.8 million Japan, Philippines
Red 27 09 May 2015 12:00 222 19.6 million 900 thousand Japan, Philippines
Red 28 09 May 2015 18:00 259 27.8 million 200 thousand Japan, Philippines
Orange 29 10 May 2015 00:00 195 44.5 million 1.3 million Japan, Philippines
Red 30 10 May 2015 06:00 259 49.6 million 1.5 million Japan, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 03 May 2015 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 8, 141.2
GREEN
2 03 May 2015 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 8.4, 141.5
GREEN
3 03 May 2015 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 9, 141.3
GREEN
4 03 May 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9.6, 140.7
GREEN
5 04 May 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 9.7, 140.3
GREEN
6 04 May 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 9.8, 140
GREEN
7 04 May 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 9.6, 139.7
GREEN
8 04 May 2015 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 9.6, 139.4
GREEN
9 05 May 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 9.4, 138.9
GREEN
10 05 May 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 9.5, 138.9
GREEN
11 05 May 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 9.5, 138.6
GREEN
12 05 May 2015 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 9.5, 138.2
GREEN
13 06 May 2015 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 9.4, 137.8
GREEN
14 06 May 2015 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 9.4, 136.9
GREEN
15 06 May 2015 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 9.7, 136.1
GREEN
16 06 May 2015 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 10, 135.2
GREEN
17 07 May 2015 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 10.6, 134.2
GREEN
18 07 May 2015 06:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 11.3, 133.1
GREEN
19 07 May 2015 12:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.7, 132
GREEN
20 07 May 2015 18:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.1, 131.1
GREEN
21 08 May 2015 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.5, 130.1
GREEN
22 08 May 2015 06:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.7, 129.1
GREEN
23 08 May 2015 12:00 Category 3 194 310000 people no people 13.3, 128 Philippines
GREEN
24 08 May 2015 18:00 Category 3 194 1.2 million people no people 13.7, 127.1 Philippines
GREEN
25 09 May 2015 00:00 Category 2 176 2.9 million people no people 14.3, 126.1 Philippines
GREEN
26 09 May 2015 06:00 Category 3 194 3.5 million people no people 14.9, 125.2 Philippines
GREEN
27 09 May 2015 12:00 Category 4 213 7.7 million people 1600 people 15.4, 124.5 Philippines
GREEN
28 09 May 2015 18:00 Category 4 241 4 million people 16000 people 16.1, 123.8 Philippines
ORANGE
29 10 May 2015 00:00 Category 5 259 4.4 million people 99000 people 17, 123.3 Philippines
RED
30 10 May 2015 06:00 Category 5 259 4.2 million people 200000 people 17.9, 122.6 Philippines
GREEN
30 10 May 2015 18:00 Category 4 231 870000 people no people 19.7, 122.3 Philippines
GREEN
30 11 May 2015 06:00 Category 3 204 130000 people 14000 people 22, 123.3 Japan
GREEN
30 11 May 2015 18:00 Category 2 167 1.5 million people 1.2 million people 24.6, 126 Japan
GREEN
30 12 May 2015 06:00 Category 1 130 40.7 million people no people 28.3, 130.9 Japan
GREEN
30 13 May 2015 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 37.1, 144.2
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country Population Affected
Philippines 300000 people
Japan 1 million people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Cagayan Valley Philippines 300000 people
Okinawa Japan 1 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Naha Okinawa Japan City 290000 people 1059 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 94 km
Basco BSO 56 Civ. Paved No 4100 290 km
Naha OKA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 9800 1056 km
Futenma Mcas 75 Mil. Paved Yes 9000 1069 km
Kadena AB DNA 45 Mil. Paved Yes 12100 1077 km
Miyake Jima MYE 20 Civ. Paved Yes 3900 2461 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Port San Vicente Philippines 84 km
Palanan Philippines 89 km
Basco Philippines 290 km
Myako Island Japan 814 km
Naha JPNAH Japan 1058 km
Nishihara JPNHR Japan 1067 km
Nakagusuku Wan Japan 1075 km
Heianza JPHEI Japan 1081 km
Kin Wan JPKIN Japan 1087 km
Oku Japan 1105 km
Mikura Japan 2447 km
Miyake Japan 2455 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Zukeyama Kurashiki Yonabarugawa 1995 1082 km
Okukubi Okukubigawa 2001 1096 km
Kannako Kanna Kannafukujigawa 1993 1099 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Buguey, Philippines. This height is estimated for 10 May 2015 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (367 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 37 of 12 May 2015 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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