Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for PATRICIA-15
Off-shore
21 Oct 2015 03 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PATRICIA-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population 410 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 333 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 157 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 333 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      157 km/h Current Max.

      Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Oct 2015 15:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Green 2 20 Oct 2015 21:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Green 3 21 Oct 2015 03:00 157 No people No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Oct 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.3, -94.4
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Oct 2015 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.2, -94.8
          GREEN
          		 3 21 Oct 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -95.3
          GREEN
          		 3 21 Oct 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13, -96.5
          GREEN
          		 3 22 Oct 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.3, -98.3
          GREEN
          		 3 22 Oct 2015 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.2, -100.3
          GREEN
          		 3 23 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 1 139 no people 2.2 million people 15.5, -102 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 3 24 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 2 157 no people 8.1 million people 18.8, -103.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 3 25 Oct 2015 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 22.6, -105.1 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2015 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 24 Oct 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          23 Oct 2015 23:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  1.0
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Chamela Mexico  0.3
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.3
          21 Oct 2015 15:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2015 23:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
          21 Oct 2015 15:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 05:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 01:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2015 23:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 04:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
          21 Oct 2015 16:00 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 05:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1