Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for PATRICIA-15
Off-shore
22 Oct 2015 03 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PATRICIA-15 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries
    Exposed population 410 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 333 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1 m (23 Oct 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability --

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 185 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 333 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      185 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 300000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 20 Oct 2015 15:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Green 2 20 Oct 2015 21:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Green 3 21 Oct 2015 03:00 157 No people No people Mexico
        Orange 4 21 Oct 2015 09:00 157 No people 1.4 million Mexico
        Orange 5 21 Oct 2015 15:00 148 No people 970 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 21 Oct 2015 21:00 157 No people 280 thousand Mexico
        Red 7 22 Oct 2015 03:00 185 No people 300 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 Oct 2015 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.3, -94.4
          GREEN
          		 2 20 Oct 2015 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.2, -94.8
          GREEN
          		 3 21 Oct 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -95.3
          GREEN
          		 4 21 Oct 2015 09:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, -96
          GREEN
          		 5 21 Oct 2015 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.9, -97.5
          GREEN
          		 6 21 Oct 2015 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.1, -99.5
          GREEN
          		 7 22 Oct 2015 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 13.5, -100.5
          GREEN
          		 7 22 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.2, -102.1
          GREEN
          		 7 23 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 15.5, -103.8
          GREEN
          		 7 23 Oct 2015 12:00 Category 3 185 <1000 people 1.8 million people 17, -104.9 Mexico
          RED
          		 7 24 Oct 2015 00:00 Category 3 185 300000 people 8.2 million people 19, -105 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 7 25 Oct 2015 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 24.1, -103.2 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Provinces

          Country Region Province
          Mexico Nayarit
          Mexico Zacatecas
          Mexico Jalisco

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          San Martín de Bolaños Nayarit Mexico City -
          Ixtlán del Río Nayarit Mexico City 21000 people
          Valparaíso Zacatecas Mexico City 10000 people
          Ahuacatlán Nayarit Mexico City 6300 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Chamela Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Trigomil Ayuquila 1993
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          1 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Cuitzmala, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2015 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (16 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 18 of 24 Oct 2015 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          23 Oct 2015 23:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  1.0
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.4
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Chamela Mexico  0.3
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.3
          21 Oct 2015 15:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
          23 Oct 2015 23:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
          21 Oct 2015 15:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 05:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 00:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 01:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
          23 Oct 2015 23:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 04:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
          21 Oct 2015 16:00 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 05:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
          24 Oct 2015 06:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1