Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SAGAR-18
in Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SAGAR-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (19 May 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 83 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

83 km/h Current

Up to 3.4 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 May 2018 18:00 83 3.5 million No people Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia, Djibouti

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 16 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 11000 people no people 13.2, 49.5 Yemen
GREEN
1 17 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 55000 people no people 13.2, 48.6 Yemen
GREEN
1 17 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 1.3 million people no people 12.8, 47.1 Yemen
GREEN
1 18 May 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 2.7 million people no people 12.4, 45.8 Somalia
GREEN
1 18 May 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 3 million people no people 11.9, 44.6 Somalia
GREEN
1 19 May 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.2, 43.1 Somalia
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Yemen
Somalia
Ethiopia
Djibouti

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Hadhramaut Yemen -
'Ataq Yemen -
Abyan Yemen -
Aden Yemen 3.2 million people
Lahij Yemen -
Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia 1.2 million people
Ta'izz Yemen -
Harerge Ethiopia 5.5 million people
Awdal Somalia -
Obock Djibouti 18000 people
Djibouti Djibouti 290000 people
'Ali Sabih Djibouti 38000 people
Tadjoura Djibouti 49000 people
Dikhil Djibouti 48000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
'Adan Yemen Major city 540000 people 486 km
Kraytar Yemen City - 486 km
Saylac Woqooyi Galbeed Somalia City - 687 km
Djibouti Djibouti Capital 390000 people 714 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Aden International ADE 4 Civ. Paved Yes 10100 487 km
Al Anad 274 0 513 km
Herkale 2 Civ. Unpaved No 4900 678 km
Obock OBC 21 Civ. Unpaved No 4900 689 km
Djibouti Ambouli JIB 15 Civ. Paved Yes 10300 713 km
Chabelley 27 0 724 km
Tadjoura Ambouli TDJ 75 Civ. Unpaved No 3200 734 km
Musha MHI unknown 0 735 km
Assa-Gueyla 760 Civ. Unpaved No 5300 754 km
Ali Sabieh AII unknown 0 772 km
Dikhil 461 Civ. Unpaved No 3600 812 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Al Hawra Yemen 218 km
Karin Somalia 476 km
Aden YEADE Yemen 488 km
Bulhar Somalia 636 km
Perim I. YEPRM Yemen 663 km
Obock Djibouti 686 km
Zeila Somalia 687 km
Djibouti DJJIB Djibouti 714 km
Tadjoura Djibouti 735 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Takhushih, Somalia. This height is estimated for 19 May 2018 11:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (15 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 16 May 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 May 2018 11:00 Takhushih Somalia  0.3
19 May 2018 13:00 Loyado Djibouti  0.2
19 May 2018 11:00 Saylac Somalia  0.2
18 May 2018 16:00 Ghadir Yemen  0.2
19 May 2018 15:00 Djibouti Djibouti  0.2
18 May 2018 18:00 Aylu Eritrea  0.1
18 May 2018 20:00 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
18 May 2018 20:00 Qa'wa Yemen  0.1
18 May 2018 19:00 Alela Eritrea  0.1
18 May 2018 09:00 Beraisole Eritrea  0.1
18 May 2018 13:00 Kraytar Yemen  0.1
18 May 2018 13:00 'Adan Yemen  0.1
18 May 2018 13:00 Khormaksar Yemen  0.1
18 May 2018 13:00 Al Mansuri Yemen  0.1
18 May 2018 20:00 Rehayto Eritrea  0.1