Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 241 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

241 km/h Current

Up to 200000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
ORANGE
11 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 51000 people 14.7, 147 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 14.3, 143.8 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
11 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.3, 141.1
GREEN
11 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, 138.2
GREEN
11 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 15.6, 133.2
ORANGE
11 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 241 24.8 million people 150000 people 17, 128.2 Philippines
GREEN
11 14 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 18.8, 123 Philippines
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Saipan Northern Mariana Islands Capital 62000 people 553 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Nikko 18 0 550 km
Saipan International SPN 66 Civ. Paved Yes 8700 556 km
Commonwealth Health Center 5 0 557 km
Dynasty 46 0 566 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 568 km
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 618 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Saipan MPSPN Northern Mariana Islands 557 km
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 568 km
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 629 km
Port San Vicente Philippines 3086 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Rota, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (41 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 09 Sep 2018 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 07:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 07:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 07:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 07:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
10 Sep 2018 05:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.3
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 05:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 04:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 04:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Gayinero Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Asatdas Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Lupog Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Oceanview Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Dededo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 South Acres Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Ipapao Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Upi Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Piti Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asan Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Yona Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Adacao Guam  0.1