Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (10 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 250 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

250 km/h Current

Up to 1.1 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 259 65.2 million 210 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 250 113 million 1.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 130000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 160000 people no people 14, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14, 140
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 14.1, 137.5
GREEN
16 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 14.5, 135.2
GREEN
16 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 15, 132.9
RED
16 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 16.8 million people 210000 people 16.5, 128.1 Philippines
ORANGE
16 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 231 112.6 million people 1 million people 18.9, 123.1 Philippines
GREEN
16 15 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 20.9, 117.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Guam
Northern Mariana Is.
Philippines

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guam Guam 140000 people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people 240 km
Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people 2397 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0 244 km
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0 255 km
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000 286 km
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900 344 km
Dynasty 46 0 345 km
Basco BSO 56 Civ. Paved No 4100 2304 km
Taggat 5 0 2356 km
Pratas Island 3 0 2845 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Apra Harbor Guam 227 km
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam 233 km
Rota Northern Mariana Islands 275 km
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands 343 km
Port San Vicente Philippines 2242 km
Aparri PHAPR Philippines 2290 km
Basco Philippines 2305 km
Abulog Philippines 2311 km
Calayan Philippines 2326 km
Claveria Philippines 2354 km
Dirique Inlet Philippines 2404 km
Pratas Island China 2845 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (184 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 10 Sep 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 09:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.5
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Gonzaga Philippines  0.4
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Bawa Philippines  0.4
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cabiraoan Philippines  0.4
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Casambalangan Philippines  0.4
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Buguey Philippines  0.3
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Balza Philippines  0.3
14 Sep 2018 18:00 San Vincente Philippines  0.3
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Bisagu Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Aparri Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Punta Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Linao Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Manila Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Meycauayan Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tanza Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tinajeros Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Caloocan Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Wright Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Pequit Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Upi Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Alacan Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Bateng Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Poso Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 17:00 Bugallon Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Pamarauan Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tanza Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Binakayan Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cavite Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 03:00 Bangon Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bikal Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Catuguran Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Canaoalan Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Carael Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Dagupan Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Abulug Philippines  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
14 Sep 2018 01:00 Bagas Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Alilinu Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 17:00 Baloboc Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Amaya Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tehero Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Naguilian Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.2
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cabuluan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 San Juan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Fugu Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Bangan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Taccuen Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 San Benigno Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Pasuquin Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Bangui Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tangatong Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
10 Sep 2018 11:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
14 Sep 2018 17:00 Maniboc Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Binmale Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 General Trias Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Imus Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Minabul Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 San Dionisio Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Magsingal Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Guisit Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Talatal Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
14 Sep 2018 08:00 Panganiban Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Sorongan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 03:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 11:00 Labigan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 11:00 Cavayan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 11:00 Malbug Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 San Andres Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Lobit Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Calay-ab Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Patro Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cabugao Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Badoc Philippines  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Garapan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Mutcho Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 Tanapag Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
10 Sep 2018 06:00 San Roque Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Bitaogan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Caramoan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Guijalo Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Pandanan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Colongcogong Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Sialat Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Calolbon Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Manambrag Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Gitoma Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 17:00 Lingayen Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 17:00 Labangan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 17:00 Damaloguen Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Aringay Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Agoo Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 14:00 Divilican Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cadagatan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 01:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 01:00 Balaton Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 12:00 Guiom Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 13:00 Borongan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 05:00 Pagsanjan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Caba Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 San Cornelio Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Binacud Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Talinaan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 07:00 Pandan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tondol Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Panasgasan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Nabaul Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Capantolan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Mangas Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Naic Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Balanga Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Pilar Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Orion Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cabcaben Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Limay Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Maragondon Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Banoa Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Visita Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Kaniwalan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Banua Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Nagsidel Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Rarasi Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Dadao Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Nakanmuan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Sabtang Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Chavayan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Ivana Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Mahatao Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Itbud Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Basco Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 21:00 Tatabunan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bagacay Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Guintampilan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Miguel Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Claveria Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Santiago Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Batitgao Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Namuac Philippines  0.1
13 Sep 2018 21:00 Narombacan Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 04:00 Santa Margarita Philippines  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Battog Philippines  0.1