Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 3.1 m (16 Sep 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 269 km/h 3.1 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 3.1 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

269 km/h Current Max.

Up to 58.6 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 259 65.2 million 210 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 250 113 million 1.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 250 151 million 3.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 250 185.2 million 31.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 250 190.1 million 37 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 269 207.4 million 43.4 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 259 217.7 million 54.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 22 12 Sep 2018 06:00 259 228.5 million 42.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China, Viet Nam
Red 23 12 Sep 2018 12:00 250 260 million 40.8 million Guam, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam
Red 24 12 Sep 2018 18:00 269 256 million 27.3 million Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam
Red 25 13 Sep 2018 00:00 250 259.6 million 31.4 million Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam
Red 26 13 Sep 2018 06:00 259 248.1 million 47.8 million Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Red 27 13 Sep 2018 12:00 259 265.3 million 34 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam
Red 28 13 Sep 2018 18:00 287 291 million 41.6 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam
Red 29 14 Sep 2018 00:00 269 278.5 million 36.7 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam
Red 30 14 Sep 2018 06:00 269 299.3 million 58.6 million Philippines, China, Viet Nam, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 130000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 160000 people no people 14, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14, 141.2
GREEN
18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14, 139.7
GREEN
19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.7, 138.6
GREEN
20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 137.3
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 136.2
GREEN
22 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 278 no people no people 14, 135.2
GREEN
23 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 278 no people no people 14.2, 134
GREEN
24 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 287 no people no people 14.3, 132.5
GREEN
25 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.5, 131.2
GREEN
26 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 1.2 million people no people 14.7, 130.1 Philippines
GREEN
27 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 7.4 million people no people 15, 129 Philippines
GREEN
28 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 278 53.8 million people no people 15.2, 127.9 Philippines
GREEN
29 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 278 56.7 million people no people 15.9, 126.9 Philippines
RED
30 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 57.5 million people 3.7 million people 16.8, 125.6 Philippines
RED
30 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 269 64 million people 6.3 million people 17.8, 122.6 Philippines
RED
30 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 3 194 152.6 million people 1.7 million people 18.8, 119.7 Philippines
RED
30 15 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 156.8 million people 6 million people 19.9, 116.8 China
RED
30 16 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 213 197.4 million people 42.7 million people 21.1, 113.6 Viet Nam
RED
30 17 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 80.5 million people 12.3 million people 22.5, 107.3 Viet Nam
ORANGE
30 18 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 11.7 million people no people 23.6, 101.3 India
GREEN
30 19 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 26.6, 97 India
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Philippines
China
Vietnam
Guam
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Southern Tagalog Philippines 8.2 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people
Guangdong China 69.6 million people
Hong Kong China 5.8 million people
Macau China 380000 people
Guangxi China 46.8 million people
Quang Ninh Viet Nam 910000 people
Lang Son Viet Nam 680000 people
Cao Bang Viet Nam 640000 people
Guam Guam 140000 people
Bac Thai Viet Nam 1.1 million people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Yunnan China 40.9 million people
Tuyen Quang Viet Nam 640000 people
Ha Giang Viet Nam 520000 people
Lao Cai Viet Nam 530000 people
Lai Chau Viet Nam 500000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Cabagan Cagayan Valley Philippines City 24000 people
Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people
Santiago Cagayan Valley Philippines City 100000 people
San Nicolas Ilocos Philippines City 19000 people
Laoag Ilocos Philippines City 100000 people
Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people
Central Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 6.1 million people
Kowloon Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 2 million people
Macau Macau SAR Macau (China) Major city -
Sanxiang Guangdong China City -
Xincheng Guangdong China City -
Taicheng Guangdong China City 140000 people
Sanbu Guangdong China City 130000 people
Cangcheng Guangdong China City -
Encheng Guangdong China City 110000 people
Jiangcheng Guangdong China City -
Chuncheng Guangdong China City 150000 people
Maoming Guangdong China City 460000 people
Meilu Guangdong China City 100000 people
Gaozhou Guangdong China City 160000 people
Huangpo Guangdong China City -
Dongli Guangdong China City 100000 people
Zhanjiang Guangdong China City 630000 people
Chikan Guangdong China City -
Leicheng Guangdong China City -
Rongcheng Guangxi China City -
Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
Yulin Guangxi China City 140000 people
Lianzhou Guangxi China City 70000 people
Beihai Guangxi China City 280000 people
Hengzhou Guangxi China City -
Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
Nanning Guangxi China City 1 million people
Ningming Guangxi China City -
Longzhou Guangxi China City -
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people
Kaihua Yunnan China City 64000 people
Kaiyuan Yunnan China City 190000 people
Gejiu Yunnan China City 130000 people
Yüan-chiang Yunnan China City -
Mo-chiang Yunnan China City -
Tung-kuan-shao Yunnan China City -
Hsin-fu Yunnan China City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
Cauayan CYZ 61 Civ. Paved No 5700
Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900
Mrmp 117 0
Bagabag 249 Civ. Paved No 3200
Taggat 5 0
Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900
Vigan 4 Civ. Paved No 3400
Pratas Island 3 0
Hong Kong International (Chep Lap Kok) HKG 9 Civ. Paved Yes 12400
Macau MFM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
Zhuhai ZUH 6 0
Shanzhou SZO unknown 0
Zhanjiang ZHA 75 0
Suixi 32 0
Beihai BHY 25 0
Nanning-Wuyu NNG 111 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Ningming 125 0
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Dynasty 46 0
Pingyuanjie1 30480 0
Pingyuanjie 1490 0
Mengzi 1296 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Palanan Philippines
Casiguaran Philippines
Port San Vicente Philippines
Aparri PHAPR Philippines
Abulog Philippines
Calayan Philippines
Claveria Philippines
Port San Esteban Philippines
Laoag PHLAO Philippines
Gan Bay Philippines
Salomague Philippines
Pandan Philippines
Dirique Inlet Philippines
Pratas Island China
Lufeng Terminal China
Lan Shui Terminal China
Huizhou Terminal CNHUI China
Xijiang Terminal China
Hong Kong HKHKG Hong Kong (China)
Yangjiang CNYJI China
Shuidong CNSDG China
Zhanjiang CNZHA China
Lei Shou China
Wei Chou Island China
Bei Hai CNBHY China
Fangcheng Gang China
Fangcheng CNFAN China
Apra Harbor Guam
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
Rota Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Magat Magat 1983
Dalongdong Dalongdong He 1959
Donghu Nalong He 1961
Jinjiang Tan He 1972
Huangsha Yanghua Jiang 1960
Renshui Luoguang Shui 1975
Fucao Qianpai He 1997
Gaozhou Dajing He 1959
Hedi Jiuzhou Jiang 1961
Hepu Xiaojiang He 1960
Xiaojiang Xiaojiang He 1960
Wusijiang Wusi Jiang 1958
Lingdong Yin Jiang 1963
Hongchaojiang Hongchao Jiang 1964
Xijin Yu Jiang 1964
Tunliu Trib. Yu Jiang -99
Fengtinghe Bachi Jiang 1960
Dawangtan Bachi Jiang 1960
Naban Mingjiang He 1960
Kelan Trib. Yu Jiang -99

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

3.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.7m in Xiaolin, China. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (822 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 38 of 16 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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