Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

111 km/h Current

Up to 1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
17 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -53.4
GREEN
17 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.8, -56.2
GREEN
17 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 1 million people no people 15, -59.2 Dominica
GREEN
17 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 450000 people no people 15.3, -62.3 Martinique
GREEN
17 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.5, -68.5
GREEN
17 15 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.5, -73.5
GREEN
17 16 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.5, -77.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
St. Lucia
Guadeloupe
Dominica

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
St. Lucia Saint Lucia 140000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 12000 people 1047 km
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 88000 people 1053 km
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 1088 km
Moule Guadeloupe City - 1094 km
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City - 1113 km
Capesterre Guadeloupe City - 1114 km
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people 1128 km
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people 1130 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800 1045 km
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 1048 km
La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0 1060 km
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 1080 km
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000 1080 km
St. Francois SFC unknown 0 1087 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 1089 km
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 1089 km
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400 1113 km
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0 1113 km
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0 1119 km
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0 1135 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Le Marin Martinique 1032 km
Le Robert Martinique 1037 km
La Trinite Martinique 1041 km
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia 1049 km
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia 1051 km
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique 1052 km
Saint Pierre Martinique 1065 km
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe 1086 km
Saint Louis Guadeloupe 1086 km
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 1089 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 1098 km
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe 1113 km
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe 1114 km
Port Louis Guadeloupe 1116 km
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe 1130 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978 1038 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Dubuc, Dominica. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 11 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2018 14:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 14:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 14:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Roseau Dominica  0.2
13 Sep 2018 14:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Cujizal Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Palencia Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 19:00 Caduto Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 13:00 Lero Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 13:00 Sainte Pierre Martinique  0.1
14 Sep 2018 18:00 Guasare Abajo Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 13:00 Basse-Pointe Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 19:00 Jagueicito Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1