Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (14 Sep 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 93 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

93 km/h Current

Up to 990000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 93 1000 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
GREEN
19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, -53.5
GREEN
20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15, -54.7
GREEN
20 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.1, -56.7
GREEN
20 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 990000 people no people 15.3, -59.4 Saint Lucia
GREEN
20 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 83 180000 people no people 15.3, -62.6 Dominica
GREEN
20 14 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.4, -65.6
GREEN
20 15 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.5, -71
GREEN
20 16 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.5, -75
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
St. Lucia
Guadeloupe
Dominica

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
St. Lucia Saint Lucia 140000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 12000 people 686 km
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 88000 people 688 km
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 720 km
Moule Guadeloupe City - 727 km
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City - 745 km
Capesterre Guadeloupe City - 746 km
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people 759 km
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people 761 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800 679 km
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 687 km
La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0 693 km
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 711 km
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000 712 km
St. Francois SFC unknown 0 719 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 720 km
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 720 km
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0 745 km
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400 745 km
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0 750 km
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0 767 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Le Marin Martinique 667 km
Le Robert Martinique 672 km
La Trinite Martinique 675 km
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique 686 km
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia 688 km
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia 691 km
Saint Pierre Martinique 698 km
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe 717 km
Saint Louis Guadeloupe 718 km
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 720 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 729 km
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe 745 km
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe 746 km
Port Louis Guadeloupe 749 km
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe 762 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978 673 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Cujizal, Venezuela. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2018 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (28 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 20 of 12 Sep 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Cujizal Venezuela  0.2
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Palencia Venezuela  0.2
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Jagueicito Venezuela  0.2
13 Sep 2018 19:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.2
15 Sep 2018 00:00 Caduto Venezuela  0.2
15 Sep 2018 00:00 Guasare Abajo Venezuela  0.2
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Puerto Zazarida Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Cuajaracume Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Cauca Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Ocorote Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Rio Seco Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Algodones Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 22:00 Codore Adentro Venezuela  0.1
14 Sep 2018 23:00 Arajo Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 Roseau Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 20:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 22:00 Zazarida Venezuela  0.1
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
15 Sep 2018 00:00 Matacan Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 00:00 Cayude Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 00:00 Tiguajada Venezuela  0.1
15 Sep 2018 00:00 Caujarito Venezuela  0.1