Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 65 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

65 km/h Current

Up to 1.5 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 93 1000 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 93 1.2 million No people Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Jamaica
Green 22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 83 1.2 million No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat
Green 23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 74 1.5 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis
Green 24 13 Sep 2018 15:00 74 1.5 million No people Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados
Green 25 13 Sep 2018 21:00 65 1.5 million No people Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
GREEN
19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, -53.5
GREEN
20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15, -54.7
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 <1000 people no people 15.4, -56.6
GREEN
22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 1.1 million people no people 15.3, -58 Antigua and Barbuda
GREEN
23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 74 1.4 million people no people 15.4, -59.7 Montserrat
GREEN
24 13 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 74 1.2 million people no people 14.9, -61.8 Montserrat
GREEN
25 13 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.9, -63.2
GREEN
25 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.9, -65.4
GREEN
25 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.9, -68.2
GREEN
25 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.9, -70.8
GREEN
25 15 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15, -73
GREEN
25 16 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 16.2, -77.4
GREEN
25 17 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 17.5, -81.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Dominica
Guadeloupe
Martinique
Montserrat
St. Lucia
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
Antigua & Barbuda
Barbados

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
Montserrat Montserrat -
St. Lucia Saint Lucia 140000 people
St. Vincent & the Grenadines Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 110000 people
Antigua & Barbuda Antigua and Barbuda 65000 people
Barbados Barbados 260000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people
Capesterre Guadeloupe City -
Plymouth Saint Anthony Montserrat Capital no people
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 88000 people
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City -
Moule Guadeloupe City -
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 12000 people
Kingstown Saint George St. Vincent and the Grenadines Capital 17000 people
Saint John's Antigua and Barbuda Capital 21000 people
Bridgetown Saint Michael Barbados Capital 96000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000
W H Bramble (Abandoned) 12 0
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400
Montserrat Blackburne MNI unknown 0
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
St. Francois SFC unknown 0
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200
Hewanorra International UVF 3 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0
E T Joshua SVD 20 Civ. Paved Yes 4600
V C Bird International ANU 19 Civ. Paved Yes 9000
J F Mitchell 4 Civ. Paved No 3600
Canouan 5 Civ. Paved No 3600
Union Island UNI unknown 0
Grantley Adams International BGI 52 Civ. Paved Yes 11000

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Roseau DMRSU Dominica
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe
Saint Pierre Martinique
Plymouth Montserrat
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique
Saint Louis Guadeloupe
La Trinite Martinique
Port Louis Guadeloupe
Le Robert Martinique
Le Marin Martinique
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia
Vieux Fort Saint Lucia
Saint Johns AGSJO Antigua and Barbuda
Kingstown VCKTN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Parham Harbour Antigua and Barbuda
Admiralty Bay Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Speightstown Barbados
Bridgetown BBBGI Barbados

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978

Nuclear plants

No content available ..

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Le Bourg, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Saint-Louis Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1