Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (13 Sep 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 56 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

56 km/h Current

Up to 1.5 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
Green 16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 120 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 111 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 102 820 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 93 1 million No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 93 1000 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
Green 21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 93 1.2 million No people Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Jamaica
Green 22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 83 1.2 million No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat
Green 23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 74 1.5 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis
Green 24 13 Sep 2018 15:00 74 1.5 million No people Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados
Green 25 13 Sep 2018 21:00 65 1.5 million No people Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados
Green 26 14 Sep 2018 03:00 65 1.5 million No people Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Green 27 14 Sep 2018 09:00 56 1.5 million No people Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
Green 28 14 Sep 2018 15:00 56 1.5 million No people Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
16 11 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -49.7
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -51.3
GREEN
18 12 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.5, -52.3
GREEN
19 12 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, -53.5
GREEN
20 12 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15, -54.7
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 <1000 people no people 15.4, -56.6
GREEN
22 13 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 1.1 million people no people 15.3, -58 Antigua and Barbuda
GREEN
23 13 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 74 1.4 million people no people 15.4, -59.7 Montserrat
GREEN
24 13 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 74 1.2 million people no people 14.9, -61.8 Montserrat
GREEN
25 13 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.9, -63.2
GREEN
26 14 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.9, -64.4
GREEN
27 14 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15, -65.5
GREEN
28 14 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.9, -67.3
GREEN
28 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15, -69
GREEN
28 15 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -71.3
GREEN
28 16 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.2, -73.3
GREEN
28 16 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.6, -75.3
GREEN
28 17 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 17, -79.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Montserrat
Guadeloupe
Antigua & Barbuda
Dominica
Martinique
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
St. Lucia
Barbados

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Montserrat Montserrat -
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people
Antigua & Barbuda Antigua and Barbuda 65000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
St. Vincent & the Grenadines Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 110000 people
St. Lucia Saint Lucia 140000 people
Barbados Barbados 260000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Plymouth Saint Anthony Montserrat Capital no people 581 km
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people 611 km
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people 614 km
Capesterre Guadeloupe City - 628 km
Saint John's Antigua and Barbuda Capital 21000 people 633 km
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City - 636 km
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people 637 km
Moule Guadeloupe City - 658 km
Fort-de-France Martinique Capital 88000 people 671 km
Kingstown Saint George St. Vincent and the Grenadines Capital 17000 people 678 km
Castries Castries St. Lucia Capital 12000 people 688 km
Bridgetown Saint Michael Barbados Capital 96000 people 854 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Montserrat Blackburne MNI unknown 0 586 km
W H Bramble (Abandoned) 12 0 587 km
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0 612 km
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0 617 km
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0 623 km
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500 637 km
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0 637 km
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400 637 km
V C Bird International ANU 19 Civ. Paved Yes 9000 639 km
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800 649 km
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000 656 km
St. Francois SFC unknown 0 662 km
Le Lamentin FDF 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800 680 km
Union Island UNI unknown 0 683 km
J F Mitchell 4 Civ. Paved No 3600 686 km
E T Joshua SVD 20 Civ. Paved Yes 4600 686 km
Vigie SLU 6 Civ. Paved Yes 6200 687 km
Canouan 5 Civ. Paved No 3600 689 km
La Desirade Les Galets DSD unknown 0 692 km
Hewanorra International UVF 3 Civ. Paved Yes 9000 697 km
Grantley Adams International BGI 52 Civ. Paved Yes 11000 867 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Plymouth Montserrat 579 km
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe 610 km
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe 623 km
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica 631 km
Saint Johns AGSJO Antigua and Barbuda 632 km
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe 636 km
Roseau DMRSU Dominica 636 km
Parham Harbour Antigua and Barbuda 640 km
Port Louis Guadeloupe 641 km
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe 651 km
Saint Louis Guadeloupe 652 km
Saint Pierre Martinique 658 km
Fort de France MQFDF Martinique 673 km
La Trinite Martinique 682 km
Kingstown VCKTN Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 683 km
Cul de Sac Bay LCCDS Saint Lucia 684 km
Castries LCSLU Saint Lucia 686 km
Le Robert Martinique 686 km
Admiralty Bay Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 687 km
Le Marin Martinique 694 km
Vieux Fort Saint Lucia 696 km
Speightstown Barbados 847 km
Bridgetown BBBGI Barbados 853 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Saint Pierre la Manzo Manche 1978 686 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Le Bourg, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.2
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Brazalitta Jamaica  0.1
16 Sep 2018 21:00 Mahoe Gardens Jamaica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Saint-Louis Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 17:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 18:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 19:00 Bouillante Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 16:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 15:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1