Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (24 Oct 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 204 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

204 km/h Current

Up to 330000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 185 Few people No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 185 7 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 148 3.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Orange 4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 167 3 million 190 thousand Mexico
Orange 5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 167 5.6 million 900 thousand Mexico
Red 6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 204 4.6 million 920 thousand Mexico
Red 7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 204 5.8 million 340 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -104.9
GREEN
2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.8, -105.7
GREEN
3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.2, -105.8
GREEN
4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.7, -106.1
GREEN
5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.2, -106.5
GREEN
6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 16.6, -106.7
GREEN
7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 17, -107
GREEN
7 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 17.8, -107.4
GREEN
7 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 18.8, -107.6
GREEN
7 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 231 26000 people no people 19.8, -107.6 Mexico
RED
7 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 4.6 million people 340000 people 21, -107.1 Mexico
GREEN
7 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 2.8 million people no people 24.8, -103.3 Mexico
GREEN
7 25 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 26.8, -100 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.3 million people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people
Coahuila Mexico 2.1 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 14000 people 619 km
Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people 632 km
Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 12000 people 888 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Isla Maria Madre 5 0 517 km
Teacapan 6 0 629 km
Acaponeta 84 0 629 km
Rancho los Cabras 3 0 649 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
G. Franci Poanas 1968 837 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in Cuantla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 21 Oct 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 03:00 Cuantla Mexico  1.0
24 Oct 2018 03:00 Novillero Mexico  1.0
24 Oct 2018 03:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.9
24 Oct 2018 02:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.8
24 Oct 2018 02:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.7
24 Oct 2018 02:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.6
24 Oct 2018 02:00 San Blas Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2018 04:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.3
24 Oct 2018 02:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 20:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 20:00 Palacios United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Flake United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Elmgrove United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Nadeau United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Texas City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Virginia Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Fort Travis United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 02:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Spanish Village United States  0.2
25 Oct 2018 00:00 Intracoastal City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 04:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Patton United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 21:00 High Island United States  0.2
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Cheniere Au Tigre United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 03:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Caplen United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Gilchrist United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Estes United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Rockport United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Copano Village United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Fulton United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 20:00 Matagorda United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Freeport United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Mims United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Hoskins United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Port Morris United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 03:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Constance Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Cameron United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 02:00 Port Aransas United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Chinquapin United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Quintana United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Surfside United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 03:00 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 03:00 Sea Isle United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 22:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 08:00 Galveston United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Gulf Park United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 17:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 02:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2018 01:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Oak Grove United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 21:00 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 23:00 Ellerstie United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 23:00 Gordy United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 23:00 South Bend United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 04:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 19:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.1